Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: pay attention to the prospect of leading textile and clothing enterprises under the trend of national tide
Event: the popularity of national fashion is rising, and Chinese clothing "calls with the wind". Since the Sino US trade dispute in 2018, China's clothing exports have been frustrated, and the supply side reform has forced the transformation of China's clothing industry to promote technology through research and development, tell stories through design, strive to improve domestic demand for clothing internally and shape the brand image with Chinese characteristics externally. As early as the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, Li Ning has launched the banner of Chinese sports brand, and his appearance at New York Fashion Week has pushed the Chinese trend to the world stage. The BCI event with great influence further ignited the national tide and gave birth to the birth and development of a large number of national tide brands. At the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games, which has just passed, both athletes' clothing and the surroundings of the Winter Olympic Games highlight the Chinese style trend in the 21st century.
Policies help development, and Guochao clothing is "like a fish in water". In recent years, the state has continuously issued policies to promote the development and export of China's textile and clothing, promote the transformation of clothing and clothing to innovation and creation, advocate product technology research and development, encourage the expansion of brand historical and cultural heritage, and improve product added value and soft power. Guochao clothing has become a new outlet for China's clothing development with its unique cultural design and emerging scientific and technological creation. It has developed rapidly with the support of policies such as the 13th five year development outline of China's clothing industry and the 13th five year scientific and technological progress outline of textile industry.
China's clothing market has warmed up, and technology and innovation have helped the national trend. Affected by the global covid-19 epidemic, the development of the whole industry has been blocked. The number of Chinese textile and garment enterprises has decreased from 13876 in December 2019 to 12653, and the industry scale has decreased. The export of new clothing products has experienced negative growth of - 7.16% and - 6.69% in 2019 and 2020; With the control of the epidemic situation in China and the recovery of the market, the operating revenue of the textile, clothing and apparel industry ushered in a positive growth of 8.22% in 2021, while online sales were less affected during the epidemic period and maintained growth all the time.
Seize the opportunity and develop the national tide early. The popularity of Guochao is not groundless. According to Baidu index statistics, the word "Guochao" has been widely searched since 2018. From 2018 to March 2022, "Guochao" was searched 1010 times a day, with a mobile daily average of 610 times. Sports brands Li Ning, Anta and Tebu international, down jacket brand Bosideng, leisure clothing brands Hla Group Corp.Ltd(600398) , Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) , golf clothing brand Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , have caught up with the express train of "Guochao" and achieved rapid development through all-round layout and multi-level efforts.
Domestic clothing has potential and is optimistic about the positioning of national fashion. Guochao clothing market is not yet mature. There is still a large room for improvement in both technology research and development and brand incubation. The differentiated Guochao positioning will provide a steady stream of power for domestic clothing. Li Ning (2331. HK), Anta sports (2020. HK), Bosideng (3998. HK) and Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) ( Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) . SZ) are optimistic about Guochao head. Market review (March 21-march 25): among the Shenwan level industries, the light industry manufacturing industry fell by 1.52% this week, ranking 19th among the Shenwan 31 level-1 industries, underperforming the market. Among the sub sectors, the cultural and entertainment products sector performed better, down 0.23%, and the household products sector performed poorly, down 2.12%; The textile and garment industry rose 1.04% this week, ranking seventh among Shenwan's 31 primary industries, outperforming the market. Among the sub sectors, the textile manufacturing sector rose 2.25%, the clothing and home textile sector rose 0.56%, and the jewelry sector rose 0.11%.
Industry data tracking:
Furniture: the price of TDI this week is higher than that of last week, and the price of MDI is higher than that of last week.
Papermaking: according to Zhuo Chuang information, in terms of pulp, on March 25, the market price of coniferous pulp was 701786 yuan / ton, up 2.22% from last Friday; The market price of broad-leaved pulp was 612727 yuan / ton, down 1.06% from last Friday; The market price of natural color pulp was 646667 yuan / ton, up 0.26% from last Friday; The market price of chemical mechanical pulp was 544167 yuan / ton, up 2.67% from last Friday. In terms of packaging paper, on March 25, the market price of corrugated paper was 377188 yuan / ton, up 0.08% from last Friday; The market price of white cardboard was 638500 yuan / ton, down 0.08% from last Friday. In terms of cultural printing paper, on March 25, the market price of double offset paper was 625500 yuan / ton, up 0.48% from last Friday; In terms of household paper, the market price on March 25 was 708333 yuan / ton, up 0.95% from last Friday.
Textile and clothing: on March 25, the price of cotton was 2272538 yuan / ton, up 0.31% from last week; The price of yarn has decreased and the price of polyester has increased.
Investment strategy:
Recently, the policy of the real estate industry tends to be relaxed. The national development and Reform Commission supports "furniture to the countryside" and encourages the implementation of furniture to the countryside subsidies. We believe that we can pay attention to the home sector in the near future, and we suggest paying attention to [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ], [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ]; It is suggested to pay attention to [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ], [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ].
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk and exchange rate fluctuation risk.
