Baijiu sector: we think that the short-term price fluctuations of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) will not change to long-term development trend, and the arrival of the recent annual report, the phased landing of the wine enterprise reform initiative will be the main catalyst for the present stage. It is still strongly recommended that 22Q1 performance is strong and high with certainty, and the annual margin change will be better. The current valuation has the following targets: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) . Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) 、 Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) 。
Popular products sector: in the face of the impact of repeated epidemic on the demand side and the pressure of rising industry costs, it is expected that the performance of popular products sector 22q1 will continue to be under pressure. We still believe that the allocation opportunities of dairy leaders with relatively stable demand and continuous improvement of profitability are better. At the same time, the opportunities of subsequent segments such as beer, condiments and leisure snacks need to observe the cost changes and the continuous improvement of demand. Recommend [ Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) ]; At the same time, pay attention to [Mengniu Dairy], [ Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) ], [ Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) ]. In the follow-up, we should pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by multi factor changes and improvements.
March 21st ~3 25, 5 trading days, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 2.14%, the food and beverage sector fell 3.47%, the Baijiu sector fell more than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, or 3.74%. Specifically, the increase of St China Portugal (+ 13.29%) and Tongpu (+ 7.85%) in the beverage sector this week was relatively large, and the decrease of Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (- 10.07%) and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (- 9.60%) was relatively large; This week, the increase of Star Lake Bioscience Co.Inc.Zhaoqing Guangdong(600866) (+ 32.76%) and Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) (+ 16.81%) in the food sector was the top, while the increase of Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) (- 16.73%) and Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) (- 12.72%) in the food sector were the bottom.
This week’s view
[Baijiu sector]: under the disturbance of the epidemic, 22Q1 is strongly recommended for the high performance of liquor companies.
Sector review: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) will launch the e-commerce platform, and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price support measures will be introduced
March 21st ~3 25, 5 trading days, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 2.14%, the food and beverage sector fell 3.47%, the Baijiu sector fell more than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, or 3.74%. Specifically, Baijiu sector specific, Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) (+6.22%), Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) (+1.55%), Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) (-0.21%) rise and fall in the top, of which the biggest increase in Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) is due to the better economic outlook in Xinjiang, + food and beverage consumption scenario recovery + wine enterprises themselves have changed to good. We believe that the Baijiu is in the expected stage of full and marginal change. The annual report starting next week, the continuous reform of liquor enterprises reform, is expected to become the next important catalyst:
1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : the e-commerce platform will be launched as scheduled, and the marketing reform will continue to advance. According to media reports, the initial work of Maotai’s new e-commerce development plan has been basically completed, and its official new e-commerce platform is expected to be put into trial operation at the end of March / early April. During the trial operation, the company will mainly launch four products such as Maotai 1935, year of the tiger Chinese Zodiac wine (including 500ml) and treasures. Building a new e-commerce platform means that the company will further expand its direct sales channels and accumulate data assets. It is expected that some of the new volume this year will be invested in the e-commerce platform, the rating will be more effectively controlled and the marketing reform will be further promoted.
2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : the adjustment strategy of channel products began to be reflected in the terminal. Recently, the guidance price of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) retail of the eighth generation was raised from 1399 yuan to 1499 yuan. Meanwhile, dealers in many places were generally informed that the company would conduct self inspection on the market from the end of March to April and recycle the illegal goods at the price of 1050 yuan / bottle. We believe that one of the key tasks of the company this year is the recovery of value, and one of the important forms is the price increase. After the company raised the comprehensive cost to 969 yuan in December last year, the increase of the retail price may accelerate the approval price of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) over 1000.
3) Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) : wheel control quantity combing, high-quality development can be expected. We believe that Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) will usher in three points that exceed expectations: 1) the development quality of product structure exceeds expectations: in 2022, the company will ensure the double increase of volume and price through the rotating quantity control mode between products, in which the way of giving up taste and giving up will be the main high-volume products this year, and the Tuopai product line will be reorganized; 2) The development of channel quality exceeded expectations: the growth of the company’s performance in 21 years mainly came from the main sales market and old dealers. The volume and quality of channels have increased, and excellent business will continue in 22 years; 3) Cost control ability exceeded expectations. Overall, we believe that Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) will enter a high-quality development channel under the strategy of “adhering to the dual brand strategy and reviving popular famous wines”.
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) why has the price fluctuated significantly recently? How to view the medium and long-term pricing trend?
Question 1: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) why does the recent rating fluctuate?
Answer: we believe that the main reason for the fluctuation of wholesale price in mid March (from about 2900 yuan to about 2800 yuan): under the disturbance of quota shipment and epidemic situation in March, some high-end consumption was restrained in the short term; The main reason for the fluctuation of the wholesale price this week (from about 2980 yuan to about 2600 yuan): the short-term inhibition of high-end consumption under the disturbance of the epidemic and the upcoming launch of e-commerce platforms have led to the short-term selling behavior of some dealers. In general, among the above disturbing factors causing the fluctuation of wholesale price, the epidemic situation and delivery are short-term influencing factors, while the impact of online platform needs to be judged according to the specific online category and volume increase rhythm of the platform.
Question 2: under the background of short-term fluctuation of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rating, what is the rating of other high-end and sub high-end wines?
Answer: Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) takes measures such as proposing retail price + 1050 yuan / bottle price recovery to support the price. It is expected that Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) pricing will remain stable in the short term, and the pricing of secondary high-end liquor will also maintain a steady upward development trend.
Question 3: how to view the medium and long-term performance of high-end wine?
Answer: throughout the year, we believe that the wholesale price of high-end liquor will be generally stable and there will be no sharp decline. Insist that the endogenous driving force / upward trend of the overall growth of high-end wine remains unchanged, and be optimistic about the overall performance of high-end wine.
Data update: the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rated price fluctuated significantly this week, and the overall inventory performance was healthy
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : affected by the quota arrival in March + the impact of the epidemic + the upcoming landing of the e-commerce platform and other factors, the wholesale price of Feitian bulk bottles fluctuated significantly this week. At present, the wholesale price of Feitian bulk bottles is about 2600 yuan, and the wholesale price is about 2900 yuan. Recently, the contract in 2022 has been renewed this month, and the original quota will be implemented in April. It is expected that with the launch of the e-commerce platform in April, the wholesale price of Feitian Maotai may be effectively controlled in stages Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : this week’s rating is stable at 970 yuan, and the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rating is about 1800 yuan. Recently Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) increased retail prices are superimposed to accelerate market self-examination or further increase the rating Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the wholesale price is about 910 yuan. The payment began in early March (the comprehensive cost was increased to 980 yuan). The growth target of Guojiao in 22 years is 30%, and the overall performance of the wholesale price is stable.
Investment suggestion: under the disturbance of the epidemic situation, firmly recommend the target of high growth and strong certainty of 22q1 performance
We believe that the arrival of the recent annual report season & the phased implementation of wine enterprise reform measures will be the main catalyst at this stage. Considering that the early sector has experienced a decline of “basically facing the good trend, mainly disturbed by the emotional side” & the valuation of the sector has also been cost-effective, so it is recommended to make a positive layout. Although Baijiu consumption is subject to some disturbance, we strongly recommend 22Q1’s strong performance and high margin: annual margin and marginal performance change, and the current valuation has the following targets: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) and Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) .
[beer sector]: this week, the sector callback, pay attention to the subsequent epidemic mitigation nodes
Review of the epidemic situation: repeated correction of the epidemic situation in the current sector is obviously related to the current situation in the current sector
From March 21 to March 25, the CSI 300 index fell by 2.14% in five trading days, the food and beverage sector fell by 3.47%, and the beer sector fell by 7.01% more than the CSI 300. Specifically, for the beer sector, Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) (- 2.34%), Budweiser Asia Pacific (- 6.24%), Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) (- 6.75%), China Resources beer (- 7.06%), Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (- 10.07%), the decline was obvious this week, mainly due to the repeated epidemic in China: the impact of the epidemic in China continued this week, and the opening rate of catering channels and the revenue of single stores fell to varying degrees under the impact of the epidemic. We think we should pay attention to the impact of the epidemic in the main sales areas of various wine enterprises, And the opportunity to repair the beer sector after the epidemic eased.
China Resources beer update: maintain rapid growth above the secondary high-end, gather momentum and fight the high-end
Event: China Resources beer released its annual performance in 2021, achieving a comprehensive turnover of 33.387 billion yuan (+ 6.2%) in 2021; The comprehensive profit attributable to shareholders was 4.587 billion yuan (+ 119.1%); The sales volume was 11.056 million kiloliters, basically the same; The sales volume of low-grade and above beer was 1.866 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%, and the product structure was significantly improved.
Specifically: 1) products: Heineken has a bright growth rate from 2021 to January February this year. In 21 years, superx has led other products in growth. Pure students have achieved double-digit growth, and the sales volume of brave venture is basically the same. HongJue has performed well in the first year of listing. 2) Cost: it is estimated that the cost of raw materials and packaging materials will rise by 1.5-1.6 billion in 22 years, which will pass on the cost pressure through price increase, and steadily promote the closure and efficiency improvement. 3) Channel: the coverage of the commanding height in 21 years has double-digit growth, and the output of a single restaurant has decreased by 20%. 4) strategy: the epidemic will be eased in the first half of 4, and the growth rate is 22 years or more. The growth of Baijiu is not less than 21 years. 25 years of high quality products still need to achieve 4 million tons target. This year, we will explore the double energy supply of liquor beer, the convergence of three channels, and the organization of two reorganizations. We believe that the company’s sub high-end and above products maintain rapid growth, Heineken’s growth rate is bright, the cost pressure is expected to be passed on through price increase, and the high-end process and profitability improvement will continue to be promoted.
Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) update: 97 pure students lead high-end upgrading, optimize catering channels and expand markets outside the province
Event: the company disclosed the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 4.538 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.79%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 611 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.36%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 499 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.61%.
Specifically: 1) products: in 2021, the revenue of high-end products was 2.513 billion yuan (+ 15.78%), the sales volume of beer was 1.2763 million tons (+ 6.41%), the proportion of pure draft beer sales increased by 4.07 PCT to 44.94%, and the sales volume of 97 pure draft beer was 156800 tons (+ 103.18%). The zero upgrade is still continuing, and the overall ton price is basically the same. 2) Q1 performance: the overall sales volume increased slightly from January to February, and the impact of the epidemic is generally limited; 3) Cost: through upgrading of product structure, flexible procurement strategy and internal cost reduction and efficiency increase, the price increase has not been considered yet; 4) Market: Guangdong is still the core market. Factories and business units have been set up outside the province. Efforts will be made in four aspects: optimizing product structure + breaking through catering and outside the province + optimizing team and customer team + cultivating new business. 5) Channel: the canning rate increased 1PCT to 32%, and the catering channel was slightly optimized. We believe that the company focuses on the growth of 97 pure high-end products, takes multiple measures to deal with the rising cost, focuses on breaking through catering channels, intensively cultivates South China and expands outside the province, and the overall development has increased in both quantity and quality.
Investment suggestion: pay attention to the opportunities for sector repair brought by epidemic control
The upgrading trend of high-end beer industry continues. We pay attention to the 22-year profit margin improvement + industry pattern optimization brought by the price increase and landing. The recent epidemic has repeatedly affected the demand, resulting in sector correction. We suggest to pay attention to the sector repair opportunities under the control of the epidemic, and we recommend to pay attention to Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , etc.
II. [food sector]: focus on the allocation opportunities of dairy leaders
Sector review: the food sector fell as a whole this week
Plate growth: food processing sector fell 1.99%, of which seasoning sector fell 3.5%, dairy sector fell 3.79%, meat sector rose 3.06%.
In terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks: Star Lake Bioscience Co.Inc.Zhaoqing Guangdong(600866) (+ 32.76%), Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) (+ 16.81%), Yantai Shuangta Food Co.Ltd(002481) (+ 16.52%) ranked among the top three in the sector. In the meat products sector, Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) (+ 16.81%), Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) (+ 8.61%) and Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) (+ 3.80%) increased the most; In the seasoning sector, Star Lake Bioscience Co.Inc.Zhaoqing Guangdong(600866) (+ 32.76%), Guangdong Jialong Food Co.Ltd(002495) (+ 2.55%) and Anji Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603696) (+ 2.19%) increased significantly; In the dairy sector, Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture Co.Ltd(002910) (+ 8.91%), Royal Group Co.Ltd(002329) (+ 2.63%), Beingmate Co.Ltd(002570) (+ 2.58) rose slightly; In the comprehensive food sector, Yantai Shuangta Food Co.Ltd(002481) (+ 16.52%) led the rise, while Xiwang Foodstuffs Co.Ltd(000639) (+ 15.59%) and Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) (+ 9.09%) followed the rise.
This week’s view: Volkswagen products expects the performance of 22q1 to be under pressure, and pays attention to the allocation opportunities of dairy leaders
1. Repeated epidemics + upward pressure on costs, and the performance of Volkswagen product 22q1 is under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunities brought by subsequent multi factor improvement
At present, in the face of the repeated impact of the epidemic on the demand side and the pressure of rising industry costs, it is expected that the performance of 22q1 in the mass products sector will continue to be under pressure. We still believe that the allocation opportunities of dairy leaders with relatively stable demand and continuous improvement of profitability are better. At the same time, the opportunities of subsequent segments such as beer, condiments and leisure snacks need to observe the cost changes and the continuous improvement of demand.
Under the repeated epidemic situation, the passenger flow of commercial supermarkets in some areas has recovered rapidly, promoting dynamic sales; However, we believe that the passenger flow recovery of this supermarket is different from that of 2020h1, mainly due to the different impact scope, time and control methods of the epidemic. Although the sales of some sectors pick up slightly in the short term, such as the relatively high inventory of condiments, the epidemic is expected to accelerate the inventory clearing in the home consumption scenario, and the companies with a high proportion of C-end are expected to benefit first, we believe that the impact on the annual performance is relatively limited. In the follow-up, with the continuous adjustment of the sector, we believe that we should still pay attention to the opportunities of each segment under multiple factors such as cost changes and demand improvement.
2. Yihai International: express delivery of 2021 annual performance exchange meeting
[2021 performance summary]
Overall: the performance was lower than expected. In addition to objective factors such as the impact of external epidemic, weak consumer demand and rising raw material costs, the management decision-making and organizational structure of the company’s internal product R & D and channel construction need to be improved.
Adjustment: 1) product R & D: ① the setting of the original product project system is short-term, and the performance of new products is weak after listing; ② it is adjusted to the category project system, and an innovation committee is established to develop categories in combination with procurement, competitive product analysis and market demand.
2) channel construction: ① the original distribution mode of base material and compound seasoning was dominated by unified management, and ② the distribution mode of instant food was readjusted to distinguish it from other categories.
[strategic focus in 2022]
[product side]
Organizational structure: there are 22 categories in total, matching the category leader + several business lines. The category is locked for a long time, but a single SKU is customized. The goal is to improve the market share after the launch of new products.
New products: 8 hot pot sauces, 18 Chinese compound seasonings and 13 convenient fast food products. Listing process: new products are tested in a small range, including small sale, medium sale and large sale (divided by urban area).
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