On March 25, the central bank again released the rating results of the central bank’s financial institutions in the fourth quarter of 2021. The results showed that the overall stability of the banking industry improved, the number of high-risk institutions halved from the peak, and decreased for six consecutive quarters. (1) Compared with the same period last year, the number of institutions with the best rating of 1-5 increased by 112, accounting for 50%, an increase of 3 percentage points over the same period last year. The number of institutions with the rating of 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 was 2 / 44 / 308 / 631 / 1216 respectively, an increase of 1 / 5 / 33 / 55 / 18 respectively over the same period last year. (2) The overall performance of 24 large banks is still the best and their ratings have been improved. The rating results of large banks are 2 at level 1, 11 at level 2, 7 at Level 3, 3 at level 4 and 1 at level 7. (3) The high-risk problems of rural cooperative medical institutions and rural banks continued to be resolved. The number of high-risk institutions was 186 and 103 respectively, and the assets accounted for 5% and 7% of this type of institutions respectively. The number and assets decreased compared with the same period last year. (4) The proportion of foreign-funded institutions in commercial cities increased by 6-7 percentage points, and that of private-funded institutions in commercial cities increased by 7-7 percentage points, accounting for 7-7 percentage points, while that of the lowest and medium-term institutions increased by 6-7 percentage points, accounting for 7-7 percentage points, accounting for 7-7 percentage points, respectively, and the proportion of all foreign-funded institutions in commercial cities increased by 6-7 percentage points, accounting for 7-7 percentage points, accounting for 7-7 percentage points, accounting for 7-2 percentage points, respectively.
On March 25, the opinions of the State Council on the implementation of the key work division of the government work report made it clear that the people’s Bank of China will take the lead to complete the work related to the raising of financial stability guarantee fund by the end of September. In response to a reporter’s question, the CBRC made it clear that the financial stability guarantee fund is used for systematic major risk disposal, “taken from the market and used in the market”, “differentiated charges are implemented in different industries and different subjects”.
The financial stability guarantee fund was launched within the year. In combination with the contents of the special meeting of the financial committee chaired by Liu he last week, the importance and measures of financial stability maintenance need to be paid continuous attention.
Reiterate the view that the bank market will continue to be optimistic, and the market driven by steady growth and steady real estate will continue. There is no need to be pessimistic if the demand is weak and the effectiveness is not reached. The economy has a cycle, there is room for policy, and there is greater possibility and space for upward in a lower position. Individual stocks continue to recommend high-quality urban rural commercial bank: Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , etc. continuous recommendation of core targets: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , focusing on the value of undervalued targets.
This week, Ningbo, Nanjing and Jiangsu markets performed best, and the defensive nature of big banks and undervalued values continued to highlight. The banks with a large increase are still mainly high-quality regional banks, with the increase of more than 2.50% in Jiangsu, Ningbo and Nanjing. The state-owned banks and undervalued banks perform well and are still significantly defensive. Throughout the week, the bank index fell by 0.12%, and the A-share bank index outperformed the wind a index by 1.28 percentage points. The rise and fall ranking of the banking sector industry was 11 / 31, down 4 places from last week’s ranking.
Near the end of the quarter, the inter-bank capital interest rate rose. The inter-bank market capital interest rate generally rose, and Shibor increased by 1 13bp overnight 7 days compared with last week; Dr001 dr007 decreased by 1bp increased by 15bp compared with last week; R001 / R007 increased by 1 70bp respectively, and the trading volume was 19.55 2.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.03 and a decrease of 0.53 trillion yuan compared with last week. The bill interest rate rose relative to last week, focusing on the change of bill interest rate at the end of the quarter. As of Friday, the six-month yield of state-owned shares / urban commercial bank notes was 2.18% 2.30%, up 31bp 25bp from last week. Bond interest rates are mostly upward. 10-year Treasury bonds fell first and then last week, and remained flat as of the weekend. Last week, the yields of treasury bonds of all maturities within 10 years generally rose, and the yields of 1 / 3 / 5 / 7-year maturities rose by 5 / 9 / 4 / 4bp respectively. The credit bonds fluctuated steadily during the week, and most of the varieties within 3 years and within the weekend rose. The yield of interbank certificates of deposit is also mostly upward.
The bond market raised a total of 121106 billion yuan this week, with a maturity of 882.87 billion yuan and a net financing of 328.19 billion yuan. Net financing of treasury bonds and financial bonds decreased significantly, and interbank certificates of deposit increased significantly.
Risk tip: the deterioration of asset quality caused by economic downturn exceeded expectations.
