Key recommendations focus on: Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) \ , Grandblue Environment Co.Ltd(600323) , China water, Jiangxi Hongcheng Environment Co.Ltd(600461) , Henan Bccy Environmental Energy Co.Ltd(300614) , Fujian Longma Environmental Sanitation Equipment Co.Ltd(603686) , China Resourcesand Environment Co.Ltd(600217) . Suggestions for attention: Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) , Chongqing Sanfeng Environment Group Corp.Ltd(601827) , China Tianying Inc(000035) , conch entrepreneurship, Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co.Ltd(605090) , Beijing Capital Eco-Environment Protection Group Co.Ltd(600008)
Latest view: in 2022, the budget of other items of the central government fund will increase by more than 360 billion yuan, pay attention to the cashing of waste incineration stock subsidies, improve the stock cash flow and release the growth power. 1) Renewable energy stock subsidies are expected to be solved at one time: on March 24, the Ministry of Finance released the budget of 459.4 billion yuan for other expenditures of the central government fund in 2022, 360.9 billion yuan higher than the implementation amount in 2020. The expenditure budget of renewable energy subsidies in 2021 accounts for 93% of the expenditure of other government funds under the same caliber. The total expenditure of the remaining combined items in the expenditure of other government funds is less than 10 billion, and the historical change is small. The budget increment of other items is expected to be used for the payment of renewable energy electricity price stock subsidy. According to the calculation of Renewable Energy Association, the subsidy gap will exceed 260 billion yuan by the end of 2019 and 300 billion yuan by the end of 2020. Linearly push to the end of 2021, the subsidy gap is about 400 billion yuan. On March 13, the Ministry of Finance issued the draft central and local budgets for 2022, which first proposed to solve the funding gap of renewable energy subsidies. 2) The waste incineration industry will usher in marginal improvement: ① cashing of accounts receivable and improving cash flow; ② The bad debts accrued by the state compensation receivable in the early stage are written back to thicken the current profit; ③ Inject incremental funds into the investment and construction of subsequent projects to release the growth momentum; ④ Wind power and photovoltaic subsidies have basically closed and moved towards the era of parity. With the bidding of new waste incineration projects, the payment of subsidies will be more guaranteed in the future. By sorting out the arrears paid by the state of listed waste incineration enterprises, the cash flow is expected to be significantly improved. The arrears paid by the leading country in the [Everbright environment] industry is about 8.1 billion yuan. The stock subsidy can be solved in time, superimposing the company's own development cycle. When the cash flow improvement is in progress, the value of the leading h Everbright environment returns, with a dividend of HK $0.34 and a dividend rate of 7.36% in 2021; Corresponding to pe3 in 2022 9x, pb0 55, [ Dynagreen Environmental Protection Group Co.Ltd(601330) ] national compensation arrears account for 18% of the net assets of 2021q3 and 50% of the revenue in 2020. The top 3 in the flexibility of asset structure improvement: Lvdong, Shengyuan and Everbright.
Carbon neutral builds the investment framework of environmental protection industry from the front end, middle end and back end, and is bullish on the long-term rise of EU carbon price and CCER in the short term. 1) Front end energy substitution: adjust the energy structure and pay attention to the demand for environmental sanitation new energy equipment and renewable energy substitution. 2) Middle end energy conservation and emission reduction: promote industrial transformation and pay attention to energy conservation management & Application of emission reduction equipment. 3) Back end recycling: promote the recycling of renewable resources such as waste classification, waste household appliances / cars and hazardous waste recycling. 4) Carbon trading: encourage the development of CCER projects such as renewable energy, methane utilization and forestry carbon sequestration. The development of China's carbon market is similar to that of the European Union. It already has the prototype of total amount control & market regulation mechanism. At present, there is much room to improve the transaction scale and covering industries, and the carbon price is far lower than overseas. The tightening of total amount drives the carbon price to rise for a long time. The approval of CCER demand release is expected to restart. We expect the scarcity price of CCER to rise in the near future.
Steady growth + new tools + new fields, comprehensively recommend low-carbon environmental protection assets: 1) environmental asset value + Growth Logic 2.0: a) steady growth + new tools + new fields, from single dimension to combination. ① Policy +: double carbon macro policy, strengthening infrastructure investment; ② Mode +: REITs improves the return on assets and opens the growth ceiling; ③ Space +: the second growth curve. B) The value of cash flow driven by marketization is further highlighted: policy tools such as CCER green power, waste incineration bidding and marketization of water price enhance the certainty of return and improve cash flow. 2) Under the new logic, the valuation anchor has been significantly improved: undervalued + low position + growth, improved model and cash flow, and improved valuation. 3) Suggestions: a) steady growth / high dividend / REITs: waste incineration [ Dynagreen Environmental Protection Group Co.Ltd(601330) ], water + pipe network [ Beijing Capital Eco-Environment Protection Group Co.Ltd(600008) ] [ Jiangxi Hongcheng Environment Co.Ltd(600461) ], water supply price increase + direct drinking water [China water]. B) New track: ① renewable resources: the most economical carbon premium + price increase of resource products: hazardous waste recycling [ Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) ], wine tank recycling [ Road Environment Technology Co.Ltd(688156) ], power battery recycling [ Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) ], recycled plastics [ Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) ] [ Beijing Sanlian Hope Shin-Gosentechnical Service Co.Ltd(300384) ]; ② Hydrogen energy: [ Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co.Ltd(605090) ]; ③ High matte: [ Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603568) ].
Latest research: Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) 2021 performance Express & Comments on the forecast of the first quarterly report of 2022: the first quarterly report increased sharply, and the lithium battery cycle capacity & profitability increased both; Industry comments: clarify the important strategic position of hydrogen energy, and focus on strengthening hydrogen production from renewable energy and key core technologies.
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the interest rate rises more than expected, and the fiscal expenditure is lower than expected
