China’s epidemic situation: the national epidemic is in the critical stage, and the situation of epidemic prevention and control is still grim
According to the press conference of the State Council on joint prevention and control on March 25, 2022, from March 1 to 24, more than 56000 cases of local infection were reported nationwide, affecting 28 provinces. Among them, the epidemic situation in Jilin is still at a high level and in a stage of sustainable development. The epidemic situation in Shanghai, Hebei, Fujian and Liaoning has increased rapidly recently, and the risk of community transmission in the epidemic area continues to exist; The epidemic situation in Shandong, Guangdong and other places has been preliminarily controlled; The epidemic situation in Beijing, Chongqing, Zhejiang and other places tends to be stable.
The National Health Commission issued a series of policies in March 2022, which are still “dynamic clearing”, but more accurate, including: 1) emphasizing scientific accuracy and nucleic acid detection in designated areas; Add antigen detection as supplement; 2) Cases are treated by classification, light cases are subject to centralized isolation management (in the shelter, etc.), and ordinary, heavy and high-risk patients are treated in designated hospitals; 3) The combination packaging of nimatovir tablets / ritonavir tablets and the domestic monoclonal antibody (ambavizumab / romisivir mAb injection) were written into the diagnosis and treatment plan; 4) The CT value of nucleic acid test ≥ 35 was added as the de isolation and discharge standard.
Epidemic situation in Shanghai: the newly diagnosed and asymptomatic covid-19 infected people are still at a high level. Nucleic acid detection and shelter construction are strengthened. Covid-19 drugs are put into use. On March 27, 2022, there are 50 newly diagnosed cases of local covid-19 pneumonia and 3450 asymptomatic infections in Shanghai, and the newly increased number is still at a high level.
1) strengthen nucleic acid detection: from March 28, nucleic acid screening will be carried out in batches and in districts bounded by Huangpu River. In the first batch, Pudong, Punan and adjacent areas were sealed first, nucleic acid screening was carried out, and the seal was released on April 1. At the same time, key areas in Puxi continue to implement sealing management. The second batch, in accordance with the principle of stubble pressing from April 1, sealed and controlled Puxi area, carried out nucleic acid screening, and unsealed on April 5.
2) strengthen shelter construction: for mild cases of covid-19 pneumonia and asymptomatic infections, centralized isolation management shall be carried out, and the place is not limited to traditional medical institutions. According to the joint prevention and Control Conference on March 26 in Shanghai, the reconstruction has been completed in seven places, including Jiading hospital area of Ruijin Hospital, Baoshan hospital area of Huashan Hospital, Zhoupu hospital, Changxing people’s Hospital, Minhang gymnasium, Jiading gymnasium and Jiading Jiahe Xinyuan talent apartment, for the centralized isolation of asymptomatic infections and light cases.
3) covid-19 is put into use. On the evening of March 20, 1000 boxes of Pfizer’s paxlovid were transported to Shanghai anti covid-19 pneumonia medical material support base by specially assigned personnel. After warehousing and acceptance, Shanghai Pharmaceutical Holdings sent the drugs to Shanghai public health clinical center and completed the first hospital sales order of paxlovid in China.
Investment view
We believe that under the current “dynamic clearing” prevention and control strategy, it is possible to prevent the run of medical resources through “saturated reserve”, including covid-19 therapeutic drugs, medical resources (hospital / shelter / isolation point, etc.), antigen / nucleic acid detection, covid-19 vaccine and other related links.
1. Covid-19 drug: focus on the domestic preparations with good effects and expected to be approved for listing earlier, as well as the related targets of covid-19 drug industry chain. It is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 preparation enterprises such as Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Geli pharmaceutical and Xiansheng pharmaceutical, as well as cdmo enterprises such as Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) .
2. Medical “new infrastructure”: it is expected to accelerate the configuration of infection control equipment, medical purification integration system and life information support equipment related to epidemic treatment, including Huakang medical, Shinva Medical Instrument Co.Ltd(600587) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , etc.
3. Covid-19 vaccine: it is still an important means of epidemic prevention and control, especially for the elderly. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) and other vaccine enterprises.
4. Antigen / nucleic acid detection. There is a certain support for the traditional business, such as and valuation.
Risk tips: covid-19 virus mutation risk, repeated epidemic risk, policy implementation risk less than expected, increased competition risk, covid-19 drug R & D less than expected, hospital infrastructure less than expected
