The overall market fell, with the semiconductor index down 4.69%.
Last week (2022 / 03 / 212022 / 03 / 25), the market fell as a whole. The CSI 300 index fell 2.14%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.76%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.08%, the gem index fell 2.80%, CITIC electronics fell 3.27% and the semiconductor index fell 4.69%. Among them: semiconductor design – 4.6%, semiconductor manufacturing – 0.2%, semiconductor packaging – 1.4%, semiconductor materials – 4.8%, semiconductor equipment – 5.5%, power semiconductor – 5.8%.
Plate tracking: the performance of semiconductors has increased rapidly, and the industry is optimistic about the prosperity of the industry
The stock price correction does not change the high prosperity of the semiconductor industry. With the continuous high growth of downstream photovoltaic, new energy vehicles and other demand markets, the semiconductor supply continues to be tight. According to different sectors:
1) simulation: the rise and fall of the simulation sector this week showed great differentiation, of which Wuxi Etek Microelectronics Co.Ltd(688601) + 28%, Shengbang + 4%, Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) -4%, Shanghai Belling Corp.Ltd(600171) -3%, Fine Made Microelectronics Group Co.Ltd(300671) -10%, and the rise and fall of other companies ranged from – 2% ~ 2%. At the industry level, the channel price Q2 of St products rose again + the delivery cycle of analog chips continued to extend, indicating that the prosperity of the industry is still continuing, and we are optimistic about the leader’s ability to continue to run horses and enclosure in the window period.
2) power: the power sector closed down this week, with windigbt index falling by 4.6%, and Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) , Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) , China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) , etc. all fell by more than 5%. The decline in power was mainly affected by the downturn in the mood of the photovoltaic sector: the new increase in silicon production in March was less than expected, the price of silicon stabilized at a high level this week, and the price of photovoltaic modules increased, affecting the market’s expectation of photovoltaic installation intensity. However, throughout the year, with the mitigation of the epidemic in China and the recovery of overseas logistics, the new supply of silicon materials was released smoothly, and the new installation momentum of photovoltaic throughout the year was good. On the other hand, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached 317000 in the middle of February of 22 years, with a month on month decline better than that in February of previous years, with a year-on-year increase of 189%, and the penetration rate exceeded 20% to 21.8%, showing a good growth momentum. Driven by photovoltaic and new energy vehicles, the demand for power sector remains high in 2022.
3) MCU: the MCU sector fell sharply this week, including Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) -5%, Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) -4%, Nations Technologies Inc(300077) -3%, Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688018) -2%. We believe that the MCU sector has continued to fluctuate since February, mainly because the market is worried about the prosperity of MCU. At the industry level, the channel price Q2 of St products rose again + the delivery cycle of MCU chips continued to extend, indicating that the current prosperity of MCU industry is still continuing. We continue to be optimistic about the leader, and continue to achieve high performance growth through product structure adjustment + localization.
4) storage: in the storage sector this week, Puya Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688766) rose by + 7%, mainly due to the company’s announcement on the progress of new products, and its norflash and EEPROM were shipped to overseas major customers. At the same time, the PY series products of medium and large capacity norflash of etox process structure began mass production and shipment for the first time, which should be used in wearable, security and other markets. Other targets generally fell, among which Dongxin shares / Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) / Ingenic Semiconductor Co.Ltd(300223) / Giantec Semiconductor Corporation(688123) / Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) fell by 4% ~ 6%.
5) material: this week, the semiconductor silicon sector was frustrated, and the callback did not change the high scenery of the track. The semiconductor material silicon wafer sector fell this week, of which National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) -u ( National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) . SH) fell 10.7%, Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) ( Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) . SH) fell 8.35%, Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) ( Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) . SZ) fell 3.68%, Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp(688233) ( Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp(688233) . SH) fell 9.52%, and Zhejiang Mtcn Technology Co.Ltd(003026) ( Zhejiang Mtcn Technology Co.Ltd(003026) . SZ) fell 4.03%. Affected by the overall decline of the semiconductor sector, the silicon material sector has made a correction, but the high outlook of the industry remains unchanged, and the semiconductor silicon wafer continues to be in short supply. According to the news of March 25 of the science and technology innovation board daily, from the long-term contracts signed between various silicon wafer manufacturers and customers recently, the price will rise quarter by quarter and year by year to 2025, and the cumulative increase of 20% – 25% this year and next year. In 2024, the average price of 12 inch semiconductor silicon wafer contract will exceed US $200, reaching a new high, and the price increase and business growth cycle time will reach a new record. We are optimistic about the golden development period ushered in by domestic silicon wafer manufacturers under the background of continuous high silicon wafer prices and accelerated domestic substitution.
Investment suggestions: continuing to recommend a series of recommendations for the investment recommendations: the continued recommendation of the ‘ Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) 35.
Risk tips: the demand is less than expected, the constraints of capacity bottlenecks, the technological progress of mainland manufacturers is less than expected, the Sino US trade friction is intensified, and the information used in the research report is not updated in time.
