Market Overview
On Friday, March 25, 2022, as of the closing, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.19% to close at 321224 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 2.08% and the gem index fell 2.79%. Wind power, photovoltaic, digital economy and other new infrastructure fell significantly, down 5.27%, 5.97% and 4.49% respectively. The decline of infrastructure construction was relatively small, down 1.56%, and real estate rose 3.84% against the trend.
Sichuan caizhou viewpoint
There are still concerns about the economic downturn in the market, and the risk aversion has not subsided. In this context, it is suggested to focus on the national policy orientation, pay attention to the traditional infrastructure in the short term and the new energy infrastructure in the medium and long term.
Wind power, photovoltaic and other new infrastructure sectors are currently in a performance vacuum period, and the price rise of upstream raw materials has led to greater phased cost pressure on some enterprises, resulting in more recent correction of the sector. On March 21, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the 14th five year plan for modern energy system, which once again made it clear that the low-carbon transformation of energy has entered an important window period. On the whole, the industry demand is still strong, and the valuation has returned to a reasonable range, which has ushered in the opportunity of long-term layout.
The growth rate of traditional infrastructure investment is expected to remain at a high level in the first half of the year, so as to ensure the smooth operation of the economy in the first and second quarters, and leave room for buffer in the second half of the year. The growth rate may fall in the second half of the year, and the annual growth rate is likely to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year. In the short term, the correction of traditional infrastructure is relatively sufficient and has a certain growth space, which can be used as the direction of short-term allocation. Attention can be paid to infrastructure, cement, steel and other undervalued sectors.
Industry dynamics
Recently, the national development and Reform Commission agreed to the Xi'an metropolitan area development plan and proposed that the implementation of the plan should adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, based on the new development stage, fully implement the new development concept, serve and integrate into the new development pattern, coordinate development and safety, promote high-quality development, create high-quality life, realize efficient governance, and give full play to the role of Xi'an radiation in driving the coordinated development of surrounding towns, Accelerate the integrated development of Xi'an and Xianyang, actively promote the interconnection of infrastructure, coordination and cooperation of industrial division of labor, joint construction and sharing of public services, joint protection and co governance of ecological environment, establish and improve the coordinated development mechanism of urbanization and the mechanism of cost sharing and benefit sharing, actively cultivate modern metropolitan areas, improve the support capacity for Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration, and better promote the western development in the new era to form a new pattern, Better serve the one belt, one road and the other in the Yellow River basin. (National Development and Reform Commission website)
Company dynamics
Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ( Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ): it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first quarter of 2022 will increase by 4.053-4.353 billion yuan compared with the same period of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 478% - 514%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses will increase by 4.004-4.304 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 503% - 541%. （iFinD）
Risk warning: government expenditure is less than expected; The price rise of raw materials exceeded expectations; The epidemic situation has been repeated on a large scale.
