The bottom range of industry valuation is expected to stabilize and rise. The media sector is at a ten-year low. The valuation level of the media sector (pe-ttm) has fallen back to the current 30x or so since the middle of 20 years, which is below the median level. From the annual average valuation level of the subdivided sector (PE overall method), games and advertising are at a three-year historical valuation low. From the perspective of industry fundamentals, the impact of negative factors such as the epidemic situation on the sector is in the past. Games in the media segment are outstanding, and 21q3 games reverse the downward trend. With the subsequent release of edition numbers, it is expected to restart, the performance of individual stocks is expected to continue to recover, and the sector has reversed upward.
The growth trend of the game market is upward and is suppressed by the policy side in the short term. 1) In the short term, on the one hand, from the perspective of the overall product scheduling of listed companies, there are rich product reserves, which are concentrated on the launch of q2-q3, and the superposition base effect subsides, which is expected to drive the strong growth of the industry; On the other hand, the growth rate of the game industry is expected to decline in the 21st year, and the industry is at the bottom of the policy: first, the distribution of the version number has been suspended since July of the 21st year; second, the policies related to the protection of minors; 2) in the long run, the game will maintain steady growth, and new technologies and new formats such as 5g, cloud game and metauniverse will bring more imagination to the game; In the past 21 years, there were 8 games with more than US $1 billion in the world, and the potential of Chinese games to go to sea is relatively broad.
Yuanuniverse will reconstruct the production and valuation system of the game. Metauniverse is expected to become the next generation of media beyond the Internet, subvert and create a new ecology. 1) The game will become the key content entrance of the metauniverse. Metauniverse will bring more immersive, richer and diversified needs and release more content needs; The natural interaction of game content and community atmosphere are expected to become the starting point of “meta universe” in the new era; From products to platforms, the attributes of the game itself are expected to change dramatically; 2) Yuanuniverse game industry may usher in a new round of dividends and reshape the game business model and valuation system. The underlying technologies (blockchain, NFT, etc.), back-end infrastructure (cloud computing, Internet of things, digital twins, etc.) and front-end devices (VR, AR, Mr, etc.) that metauniverse relies on can be combined with multiple contents such as digital collections and virtual digital people, which provides more possibilities for the innovation of mobile games in creativity, commerce and sociality, and drives the continuous innovation of the game industry; The game industry ushers in not only the release of demand, but also the great changes in ecology, operation and capital market valuation system. Roblox’s popularity may only be the beginning.
CSI animation game index analysis. The CSI animation game index (930901) was released on October 18, 2016. The CSI animation game index selects the securities of listed companies whose main business involves animation, comics, games and other related entertainment industries as the index sample. The top ten heavyweights of CSI animation game index account for 68.64% in total, with high position concentration, including Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co.Ltd(002602) , Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Kunlun Tech Co.Ltd(300418) , Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) etc. since the middle of 2021, the game ETF index has outperformed Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and outperformed the gem index at the end of 21. From the perspective of valuation, the valuation of the game has been at the bottom of 20x since the end of 2020, and it is more likely to rebound.
Huaxia Zhongzheng animation game ETF. Huaxia CSI animation game ETF (Code: 159869) is a trading open-ended equity fund and passive index fund. It was established on February 25, 2021 and listed for trading on March 5, 2021. The fund closely tracks the CSI animation game index. The fund manager is Xu Meng, who has been working as a fund manager since April 8, 2013, with an average annual return of 5.29%. Xu Meng currently manages 27 funds, the current total scale of fund assets is 127374 billion yuan, and 13 historically managed funds. The best fund return during his tenure is 143.10%.
