Core view
Shipping: this week, the CCFI composite index reported 3274.9 points, down 0.8% month on month, of which the US West Route reported 2520.3 points, up 2.0% month on month, and the European line reported 5384.1 points, down 1.6% month on month. The decline in cargo volume brought by the Chinese new year has given us ports a breathing space. Since February, the efficiency of the supply chain has continued to improve. The recent outbreak in China has superimposed the interest rate cut of the Federal Reserve and the influence of geopolitics, and the cargo volume and freight rate have both fallen. However, we believe that there is no need to be overly pessimistic at the current time point. The consumer demand in Europe and the United States is resilient, and the industry supply and demand will continue the previous mismatch in 22 years. We believe that the spot freight rate will not fall significantly below the freight rate of the long-term association, the overall profitability of the industry will remain at a high level, and the current valuation is still attractive.
Airport: we regret the occurrence of the 3.21 accident. At present, the cause of the accident is not clear, but it is certain that after the accident, civil aviation is bound to pay close attention to civil aviation safety, eliminate hidden dangers and ensure that civil aviation safety ranks first in the world. From the historical data, the impact of the accident is temporary, and the demand for civil aviation is rigid. We continue to be optimistic about the recovery of civil aviation demand after the epidemic subsides and the panic related to the accident subsides. If this accident is interpreted as a further tightening of industry supply, the upward elasticity of civil aviation may be greater after the end of the epidemic, and we continue to be optimistic about sector long-term investment opportunities.
Express delivery: Recently, the spread of the epidemic in many parts of the country has limited the supply capacity of the express industry, but the negative impact is limited and temporary. Express listed companies released their operating data in February. SF took the initiative to shrink its business to control costs, resulting in a continued decline in the growth rate of the overall business volume from January to February; Benefiting from the business volume spillover caused by the recovery of industry growth and the integration of Jitu Baishi, the business volume growth of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong from January to February was significantly higher than that of the industry. The profit recovery logic of leading express companies continues to be fulfilled, and continue to recommend Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) and Zhongtong express.
Logistics & small and medium-sized stocks: select high-quality stocks in the logistics industry and recommend Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) Jiangsu Shuangxing Color Plastic New Materials Co.Ltd(002585) performance increased continuously and continued to be recommended; Add coverage Shanghai W-Ibeda High Tech.Group Co.Ltd(688071) , recommend Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) , Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) , Anhui Anli Material Technology Co.Ltd(300218) , Hangzhou Honghua Digital Technology Stock Company Ltd(688789) , Shanghai W-Ibeda High Tech.Group Co.Ltd(688071) , pay attention to Kaili Catalyst & New Materials Co.Ltd(688269) , Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) .
Investment suggestion: in the transportation sector, we tend to believe that the dispersion of the epidemic and the free flow of people, goods and goods are a gradual process. The high-level operation of centralized transportation (especially in the first half of the year), the easing of express competition and integration will be high probability events. The Airport is relatively disturbed and suitable for long-term layout; Chemical and hazardous chemicals logistics has benefited from the increasing proportion of production and consumption in China and Asia year by year. Under the background of strong government supervision, the qualification approval of leading enterprises is gradually liberalized, and the improvement of concentration is expected to accelerate; Recommendations: Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Air China Limited(601111) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , pay attention to Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) . Small and medium cap stocks still follow the main line of reasonable valuation + marginal change + sustainable growth, trying to find stocks with sustained growth and compound interest effect. Comprehensively considering the growth and valuation levels of individual stocks, taking stock’s growth and valuation levels into account comprehensively, the growth and valuation levels of a stock, continuing to recommend the growth and valuation level of a stock, continuing to recommend the Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 585 , Kaili Catalyst & New Materials Co.Ltd(688269) .
Risk tip: the macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, the epidemic situation is repeated, and the oil price and exchange rate fluctuate violently
