Industry core view:
Last week, the media industry (Shenwan) fell 0.66%, ranking 14th in the market, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. The actual sales revenue of online games independently developed by China reached 255819 billion yuan, and the growth rate slowed down. We believe that on the whole, the dividend of “home economy” caused by the epidemic has gradually subsided, the growth rate of China’s mobile game market in terms of actual market sales revenue and user scale has decreased, the mobile game user group tends to be saturated, the overall market has entered the stock market, the concentration of head products has continued to rise, and the self-research market has also been affected to a certain extent. Tencent announced its Q4 and full year financial results for 21 years. We believe that as a head game company, Tencent, on the one hand, takes the lead in responding to the policy call, has made fruitful efforts in the protection of minors, built a healthier revenue structure, and continuously effectively combined the promotion of enterprise development and the performance of social responsibility; On the other hand, the launch of the new brand levelinfinite has taken an important step in globalization, leading domestic games to go abroad, reflecting the trend of Chinese game manufacturers to gradually enter overseas. The brilliant performance proves that Tencent’s strategy of penetrating the global market in the form of multi category, multi-channel and multi platform is achieving positive results, helping Tencent maintain its own game business growth and change its revenue structure, so as to build a more balanced development model.
Key investment points:
Games: 1) Gamma data released the report on China’s game R & D Competitiveness: the self-research revenue reached 255.8 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 6.51%. Its growth rate has slowed down, but Chinese game enterprises’ self-developed mobile games grew rapidly in the European and American mobile game market in 2021. 2) Sensortower released the top 10 list of global popular mobile game revenue in February 2022, and “glory of the king” returned to the top of the list. In February 2022, global mobile game players spent $6.6 billion on app store and Google play, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%. 3) Tencent announced the financial results of Q4 and the whole year of 21, and the international market performed well. Tencent’s game business has further increased year-on-year. Among them, the game revenue in the international market reached 45.5 billion yuan in 2021, with a significant year-on-year increase of 31%. The game duration and flow of minors under Tencent games remain at a low level. The total duration of Q4 decreased by 88% year-on-year, while the total flow decreased by 73% year-on-year, accounting for only 1.5% of the total flow of games in the local market. 4) Cdpr developed the new work of “Wizard”, which is its first game developed with unreal 5 engine. 5) Orbit and fist games released the first “League of heroes” universe setting novel.
Internet: Guangzhou six districts plus yuan universe industry, and Dawan District yuan universe industry chain alliance will be established. On March 24, Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of science and technology held a seminar on the development of metauniverse technology, in-depth discussion on technology, industry, policy and other related contents, and the city and district worked together to promote the development and implementation of metauniverse.
New media: Aowei mutual entertainment released the large screen user behavior report in February 2022. The daily operation scale of Ott was 116.54 million, up 1.8% month on month. The average daily startup rate of Ott terminal was 35.4%, up 0.3 percentage points month on month Guangdong South New Media Co.Ltd(300770) cloud audio-visual series occupies 4 and 3 seats respectively in the comprehensive ranking list of on-demand media and the ranking list of long video of on-demand media.
Investment suggestion: comply with the strict regulatory environment of the policy, promote industrial reform, and grasp the innovation needs brought by the post epidemic era and Z era. 1) Game: the epidemic dividend has faded. It is suggested to pay attention to the individual stocks in the product line that are developed for the new generation of users, have well-known IP, have high expectations and good test feedback; At the same time, driven by the concept of “meta universe”, it is expected that the ecological construction of VR content will become the focus of the market in 2022; 2) Film and television cinemas: focus on leading cinemas and individual stocks; 3) Film and television series: diversified theatres and mini dramas will be the focus of the development of the video industry. It is suggested to pay attention to individual stocks with strong content IP commercialization ability; 4) Advertising marketing: focus on individual stocks of ladder media.
Risk factors: stricter regulatory policies, delayed launch and less than expected performance of Xinyou, increased risk of overseas business, repeated epidemic risk and goodwill impairment risk.
