\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 948 Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) )
Event overview
Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) disclosure annual report: in 2021, the operating revenue was 11.136 billion yuan (+ 5.65%, YoY), the operating profit was 3.223 billion yuan (+ 18.48%, YoY), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.923 billion yuan (+ 22.08%, YoY). At the end of the year, the total assets were 522.25 billion yuan (+ 13.58%, yoy; + 3.59%, QoQ), deposits were 313525 billion yuan (+ 15.17%, yoy; + 6.97%, QoQ), loans were 244205 billion yuan (+ 18.12%, yoy; + 0.95%, QoQ), and retail aum2539 million yuan RMB 0.8 billion (+ 25.20%, YoY). 2021a net interest margin 1.79% (- 34bp, YoY); The non-performing loan ratio is 1.34% (- 13bp, QoQ), the provision coverage ratio is 197.42% (+ 16.90pct, QoQ), and the capital adequacy ratio is 15.83% (- 0.12pct, QoQ); Annual roe10 40%(+1.84pct， YoY)。 The proposed cash dividend is 0.16 yuan / share, and the calculated dividend rate is 29.5%.
Analysis and judgment:
The interest rate spread decreased significantly, but the Q4 narrowed month on month, and the rapid growth of medium income helped the revenue growth to become positive
Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) in 2021, the revenue growth rate was 5.65%, which was positive compared with - 2.75% in the first three quarters, and the revenue in the fourth quarter increased by 39% year-on-year. The contribution came from the volume premium of interest collection business and the rapid growth of intermediary business in the fourth quarter: 1) the disclosed net interest margin was 1.79% in the whole year, with a year-on-year decrease of 34bp. The return on assets including loans and financial investment decreased greatly, and the deposit interest payment rate increased by 4bp year-on-year, We believe that the real financing interest rate in the region is obviously down and the demand is insufficient or the main influencing factors. From the marginal point of view, it is estimated that the net interest margin in the second half of the year decreased by 20bp compared with the first half of the year, and the interest margin in the fourth quarter also decreased significantly. At the same time, the growth rate of table expansion increased slightly in the fourth quarter. Q4 net interest income increased by - 3.6% year-on-year, and the annual net interest income increased by - 6.1%, which was a marginal improvement from - 7% in the first three quarters. 2) Non interest business is the main supporting part of revenue. Unless the Commission transaction income increases rapidly under the negative base, thanks to the expansion of retail customer base and the rapid development of wealth management business, the net fee income increased by 15.6% in the whole year, and the increase is mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter. First, with the continuous promotion of the interface bank strategy, the basic customer base has increased and expanded. The number of retail customers and AUM have increased by 30% and 25% year-on-year respectively, higher than the growth rate on the balance sheet. At the same time, the customer base structure has been further optimized. The number of customers with financial assets of 200000 yuan and more than 1 million yuan and AUM have increased by more than 20%. Secondly, on the basis of expanding the customer base, financial management and credit card business at the business level made great efforts. On the one hand, the remaining balance of financial management at the end of the year was 167.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 35%, contributing to the annual increase of 25.4% of financial management fee income, and the proportion in the total fee income increased 4pct to 58%; On the other hand, the credit card business expanded rapidly. The cumulative number of card issuance exceeded 3 million at the end of the year, with an annual increase of 47%, and the cumulative transaction amount increased by more than 54%, driving the rapid increase of custody and bank card collection by 34%. In addition, the card issuance through its own channels disclosed by the company accounted for 51% of the annual increment. While the self customer acquisition ability was improved, the monthly life also increased significantly. The overall wealth management fee and commission income was 303 million yuan, with an annual increase of 46%, of which the sales of agency trust products contributed more than half. With the rapid growth of retail, the number of corporate customers has also increased by 20%. At the same time, the annual growth rate of debt commitment in investment banking is as high as 80%. The marginal improvement of revenue side, less provision of impairment year-on-year and deduction of tax effect contributed to the company's net profit attributable to the parent company's year-on-year increase of 22%, of which the growth rate of Q4 in a single quarter remained above 30%.
Retail loans are put in bright spots, and the weak corporate structure restricts the performance of interest rate spread
The pressure of interest rate spread comes from both ends of negative capital Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) throughout the year, the expansion rate of assets slowed down. On the one hand, the growth rate of loans was still faster than that of expansion, on the other hand, the investment assets slowed down, mainly increasing the allocation of interbank assets. First of all, in terms of loans, the annual growth rate of corporate loans is 15%, but the structure is weak. Generally, the investment in corporate loans is relatively weak, and the annual growth rate has dropped significantly to 8%. There is a slight pressure drop in the scale in the second half of the year. At the same time, the impulse of bills is obvious, and the scale at the end of the year has doubled compared with the beginning of the year, or due to the insufficient effective demand under the influence of macro-economy and epidemic, which is also the main reason for the continuous decline of loan yield. The retail business has maintained rapid development, which is reflected in the annual growth rate of retail loans on the balance sheet as high as 26.3%, accounting for 43% of the total increment of loans. Among them, the mortgage scale was + 13% year-on-year, and the stock ratio decreased to less than 60% at the end of the year. Consumer loans contributed 60% of the annual retail loan increment, doubling the scale compared with 2020, supporting the stabilization of the yield of retail loans in the second half of the year to a certain extent. Secondly, the growth rate of investment assets slowed down and the overall risk appetite decreased. Among them, the scale of debt investment decreased by 5.9%, which mainly reduced the financial bonds and non-standard on the balance sheet. At the same time, public funds were allocated, which also contributed to a higher scale of tax deduction.
On the liability side, the growth of deposits in the first three quarters was relatively weak. Deposits improved significantly with the increase of efforts to attract deposits in the fourth quarter, but the degree of deposit periodization increased during the year. At the same time, the intensity of active liabilities increased throughout the year, and the scale of interbank certificates of deposit + 30% year-on-year also raised the cost of active liabilities. The current deposit interest rate of the company has risen to a historically high level, which has a great consumption on the profits of the overall asset side. It is necessary to pay attention to the trend of deposit interest rate in the future.
The non-performing and concerned classes decreased month on month, and the asset quality continued to improve
The company continued to strengthen the disposal of non-performing assets, and the quality of stock assets continued to improve. In the fourth quarter, both non-performing loans and concerned loans decreased, with the scale decreasing by 8.3% / 1.3% month on month (Q3) respectively, and the non-performing rate by the end of 2021 was 1.34%, with a decrease of 17bp / 13bp month on month respectively; Concern loans accounted for 1.03%, with a month on month decrease of 44bp / 2bp. The scale of overdue loans also fell after rising in the medium term. The overdue rate at the end of the year decreased by 10bp to 1.13% year-on-year. The overall overdue 90 + / NPL and overdue / NPL fell to the low of 54% and 84.5% respectively. In the second half of the year, the generation of non-performing products increased slightly, but the annual non-performing product generation rate decreased by 18bp to 1.22% year-on-year. With the rapid development of retail business, the non-performing rate of individual loans remained at a very low level of 0.53%, and it is estimated that the non-performing rate of corporate loans also decreased by 10bp to 1.91% year-on-year. The year-on-year decrease in impairment provision for the whole year, but the credit impairment was withdrawn more year-on-year, the superposition recovery was improved, and the bad stock was cleared, and the overall appropriation coverage rate increased by 17pct to 197.42%.
Investment advice
The great development of retail business is the main line of business expansion in Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) 2021. While expanding customers rapidly, it has achieved rapid growth in business volume, on balance sheet credit supply and revenue contribution. At the same time, the general investment in corporate loans is relatively weak, which affects the performance of net interest margin as a whole. However, the asset quality has been significantly improved. The concerned loans have fallen to a record low of only 1.03%. The clearing of the stock non-performing burden has guaranteed the release space of profits, and the appropriation coverage rate has stepped into the upward channel.
In view of the performance of the company's annual report, we slightly adjusted the forecast of the company's revenue of RMB 14.7/173/ - billion in 22-24 years to RMB 12.7/147/17.2 billion, and the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.2/39/ - billion in 22-24 years to RMB 3.4/39/4.6 billion, with a corresponding growth rate of 15.5% / 16.1% / 17.8%; 22-24 years eps0 The forecast of 61 / 0.75 / - yuan is 0.64/0.76/0.92 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 3.84 yuan / share on March 25, 2022. Pb is 0.65/0.60/0.55 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating of the company.
Risk tips
1. The risk that the future repair of the overall economy is less than expected and the credit cost increases significantly;
2. Major business risks of the company.
