\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 62 Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) )
Event: on March 26, 2022, the company disclosed the annual performance express of 2021 & the performance forecast of the first quarter of 2022. It is estimated that the annual operating revenue of 2021 will be 644 million yuan, an increase of 68.2% at the same time, the total profit will be 199 million yuan, an increase of 456.25% at the same time, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 140 million yuan, an increase of 388.9% at the same time; Weighted roe6 72%, an increase of 9.1pct. It is estimated that in 2022q1, the operating revenue will be RMB Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) million, with a same increase of 120.39% - 230.58%, the total profit will be RMB 220330 million, with a same increase of 788.17% - 123226%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 100150 million, with a same increase of 398.08% - 647.12%.
The volume and price of the two main sectors rose simultaneously, and the company's performance was brilliant.
1) volume: the annual output exceeds the performance guidelines. It is estimated that 9016 tons of lithium concentrate (7000 tons in the guidelines) will be collected in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 96.00%; The annual output of chromite is expected to be 141000 tons (130000 tons in the guide), with a year-on-year increase of 111.65%.
2) price: the price of lithium chromite increased steadily throughout the year. The strike of chromite in South Africa led to a sharp decline in the shipment volume of overseas chromite. The price of chromite increased steadily throughout 2021. The price of Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) 42% lump ore increased 45% from 40 yuan / ton degree at the beginning of the year to 58 yuan / ton degree in 2021, reaching 63 yuan / ton degree so far. The global electrification process is accelerating, while the production capacity of ores and salt lakes outside China is concentrated and the spot supply is limited, and the supply and demand structure continues to be tight. Lithium carbonate increased by 424.6% from 53800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 282000 yuan / ton in 2021, and has now risen to 517000 yuan / ton. With the continuous promotion of the expansion of the two main businesses of the company, it is expected to bring scale effect and improve the profitability of the company.
The strong central enterprises jointly ensure the smooth implementation of the development of Zabuye Salt Lake, and the high-quality fundamentals of 2022 company are expected to be gradually consolidated. 2022 is an important year for the construction of Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) Zabuye Salt Lake. Zabuye phase II project is about to start in April. The strong combination of Baowu and state power investment provides sufficient guarantee for the smooth implementation of the project; Under the process flow of nanofiltration + evaporated lithium carbonate + by-product potassium chloride established in Zabuye phase II 12000 ton lithium carbonate project, the company further develops and studies the process flow of adsorption + membrane lithium hydroxide, and starts the pilot technical transformation project of 100 ton lithium hydroxide. After the pilot test is successful, the capacity scale of lithium hydroxide construction will be considered to be more than 10000 tons, and it is planned to reach 30000 tons of lithium salt capacity in 2025.
The goal of energy transformation is unstoppable, and the supply of lithium resources in China is very important. In 2021, China's import dependence on lithium resources was as high as 57%. Chile, Bolivia, Mexico and other countries listed lithium resources as national strategic resources like oil. Mineral investment in Australia is facing strict qualification examination. Countries are increasingly strict in the development control of lithium resources. The development of salt lake resources in China is imminent. The company sits on China's high-quality salt lake resources and relies on central enterprises. It has strong resource integration ability, and the potential for capacity expansion in the future can be expected.
Investment suggestion: the company's production expansion plan is advancing steadily. Under the background of high lithium price, the future profit is expected to be further thickened. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 140 million yuan, 719 million yuan and 1.023 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 152.8 million yuan, 29.8 million yuan and 20.9 million yuan respectively. The company's in hand resources have further development potential and maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk warning: price fluctuation risk of lithium salt products; The risk of the epidemic affecting end consumer demand; The risk that the landing and commissioning of phase II project are less than expected; Chromite price fluctuation risk
