\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 328 Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) )
Highlights of the annual report: 1. The growth rate of the company’s revenue is upward, and the net profit maintains double-digit growth. The annual revenue increased by 10.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate continued to rise. Affected by the increase of operating expenses in the fourth quarter, the growth rate of PPOP and net profit narrowed, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2% and 11.9% respectively. 2. Q4 net interest income increased by + 4.1% month on month, with both volume and price rising, of which the annualized interest margin in a single quarter rose 5bp to 1.50% month on month. The scale of interest bearing assets increased by 1.4% month on month, mainly driven by credit. The quarterly annualized interest margin rose 5bp month on month, with the joint contribution of both asset and negative sides. On the one hand, the asset side yield rose 3bp month on month, while the liability side cost fell slightly 1bp month on month. 3. Net non interest income was + 21.9% year-on-year, mainly contributed by net other non interest income. At the same time, the income of Zhongshou wealth business continued to maintain a good growth. The net handling fee increased by 5.5% year-on-year, which was wider than the increase of 3.3% in the third quarter. Among them, the income of wealth business continued to maintain a good growth. The net income of agency funds was 3.576 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.08%, and the compound annual growth rate in recent three years reached 145.78%. Net other non interest income increased by 60.3% year-on-year, mainly driven by the rise in investment income. 4. Asset quality remained stable, and non-performing assets decreased. In the fourth quarter, the company’s non-performing rate decreased by 12bp to 1.48% month on month, and the stock of risky assets continued to be resolved; From the perspective of future non-performing pressure, the proportion of concerned loans decreased 3bp to 1.35% month on month, which is generally at a historical low, and the company has less non-performing pressure in the future. The coverage of provision for non-performing assets increased by 9.9 percentage points to 166.5% month on month.
Insufficient annual report: 1. The cost income ratio increased year-on-year. Q4 single quarter annualized cost income ratio was 34.03%, an increase of 7.7 percentage points over the same period last year. The cumulative management fee increased by 12.94% year-on-year, which was significantly wider than the 3.1% year-on-year in the third quarter. 2. The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio decreased month on month. In 2021, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and capital adequacy ratio were 10.62%, 13.01% and 15.45% respectively, with a chain comparison of – 6BP, – 13bp and – 30bp.
Investment suggestion: 2022e, 2023epb0 39X/0.36X； PE4. 03x / 3.78x (pb0.52x/0.47x of state-owned bank; pe4.72x / 4.44x), the company’s operation is stable, the retail transformation has achieved initial results, the continuous optimization and adjustment of structure has led to the repair of performance in the past 20 years, the asset quality continues to be consolidated, and the stock risk has been cleared faster. At present, the safety margin of the company’s valuation is high. We look forward to the empowerment of financial technology in the future. We suggest paying attention to it.
Adjustment of profit forecast: according to the annual report of 2021, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 will be 254279/274.24/295687 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.0% / 7.9% / 7.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 94.723100.134106.211 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.2% / 5.7% / 6.1%. Adjustment of core assumptions: 1 Considering that the policy continues to guide financial institutions to transfer profits to entities and the net interest margin of the industry is under pressure, the corporate loan yield is adjusted to 4.30% / 4.30% / 4.30%; The bond investment yield is 2.60% / 2.60% / 2.60%. 2. The interest payment rate of the company’s deposits is stable and good, and the adjusted interest payment rate is 2.10% / 2.10% / 2.10%. 3. The company’s stock risk continued to be cleared, the asset quality improved, the provision narrowed, and the adjusted provision expenditure / average loan was 1.00% / 1.00% / 1.00%.
Risk tip: the economic downturn exceeded expectations and the company’s operation was less than expected.
