\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 166 Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) )
Key investment points
Event overview
On March 25, 2022, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) held the performance conference of 2021 annual report.
Core view
1. Organizational mechanism reform: clear thinking and stronger than expected.
In order to adapt to the digital transformation and firmly polish the three business cards of green bank, fortune bank and investment bank, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) the organizational structure of the three lines of science and technology, retail and enterprise finance will be adjusted, and changes will be made in the aspects of assessment and evaluation in the future, and the strategic promotion will exceed the expectation. (1) In terms of science and technology, the structure of one committee, four departments and one company will be formed, the organizational structure of the science and Technology Department will be clearer, and the plan of 10000 scientific and technological talents will be implemented in the next five years to enable digital transformation. (2) In terms of retail, the hierarchical business structure of customers is clearer, which helps make up for the shortcomings of retail channels and strengthen the wealth management strategy. Set up “five departments” including retail platform, wealth management and private banking. Among them, the retail platform Department aims at the long tail customer group; The wealth management department coordinates retail, corporate finance and interbank resources for wealth customers; The private banking department aims at medium and high-end customers. (3) In terms of corporate finance, grasp the outlet of the green finance industry and help promote the strategy. Changed to “six departments” such as green finance, inclusive finance, corporate finance and institutional business. Among them, the green finance department belongs to the former large customer department, and the organizational structure is more in line with the green gold strategy.
2. Investment banking strategy of commercial banks: the progress is gratifying and the results exceed expectations.
(1) the investment has entered the harvest period. The mechanism of “raising investment, management and withdrawal” is mature. At present, 56 investment projects have been invested, of which 12 have been listed, and the floating profit of some projects exceeds 10 times.
(2) investment banks fully empower firms. ① Obtain customers and attract high-quality customers for the firm through characteristic modes such as “stock + debt”. At present, investment banking products cover 3000 large and medium-sized enterprises; ② On the liability side, the average daily settlement deposits brought by investment bank cooperative customers are nearly 470 billion, accounting for 30% of the whole bank; ③ On the asset side, it brings opportunities for high-quality on and off balance sheet investment through product innovation, opening up and head enterprise cooperation.
3. Real estate risk exposure: clear cards and sufficient collateral.
(1) excellent business structure. ① On balance sheet assets related to housing amounted to 1.7 trillion, accounting for 93% of on balance sheet and off balance sheet exposure to housing. Nearly 70% of on balance sheet exposures are personal mortgages. The public exposure is 532.1 billion yuan and 447.7 billion yuan. The corresponding projects and mortgages at the bottom layer, of which about 90% are distributed in the first and second tier cities and trillion GDP cities. They are protected by the “guaranteed delivery” policy and the risk is controllable. ② Off balance sheet housing related assets are 130.1 billion, accounting for about 7% of the housing related exposure, and the agent sales exposure is only about 27.1 billion.
(2) small risk exposure. The potential risk exposure to the public is about 20 billion, and the impairment provision is in place. At the same time, use the thinking of commercial banks + investment banks to resolve risks through Project M & A. In 2021, 6.2 billion risk assets were disposed through Project M & A, and 20 billion M & a quota was arranged in 2022.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 15.32% / 15.48% / 15.78% year-on-year, corresponding to bps32 15 / 36.10/40.70 yuan shares. The current price corresponds to 0.62/0.56/0.49 times of Pb valuation. Maintain the target price of 33.50 yuan / share, corresponding to 1.04x Pb in 22 years, the current price corresponds to 0.62x Pb in 22 years, and the current price space is 67%.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall, substantial exposure of adverse
