\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 628 China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) )
Core view
The performance in 2021 is in line with expectations, and the adjustment is basically consistent with the industry. In 2021, the revenue was 858.5 billion yuan (+ 4.1%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 50.9 billion yuan (+ 1.7%), and the operating profit was 51 billion yuan (- 7.1%), which was mainly affected by the decline of long-term interest rate. At the same time, the investment income was 241.8 billion yuan (+ 16.5%), and the roe after deduction was 11.02%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.78 percentage points. The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company decreased slightly in the fourth quarter. The annual dividend is 0.65 yuan (+ 1.5%), and the corresponding dividend yield is 2.6%. In the second half of the year, the growth rate of other businesses with a positive value of RMB 4.23 trillion (+ 1.23 trillion) was a significant decrease compared with the growth rate of other businesses with a positive value of RMB 1.2 trillion in the second half of the year.
Insurance business: the value of new business has declined, but the regular premium of health insurance has increased rapidly, and the quality of personal insurance channels is steadily improving, forming a strong support for subsequent growth. By product, the first-year regular payment of health insurance reached 13.6 billion yuan (+ 44%), and the first-year regular payment of life insurance fell to 84.8 billion yuan (- 20%), resulting in 82.3 billion yuan (- 17%) in the first year of personal insurance channels, with the growth rate consistent with the first half of the year, and 16.1 billion yuan (2%) in the first year of Bancassurance channels, with the growth rate slightly higher than that in the first half of the year. Because the first-year premium of personal insurance over a ten-year period was 41.5 billion yuan (- 26%), the value of new business of personal insurance decreased to 42.9 billion yuan (- 26%), and the annualized value rate of new business decreased by 5.9 percentage points to 42.2% year-on-year.
There are about 820000 people in personal insurance (- 41%), and the number of people in the fourth quarter decreased by 16% month on month, slightly higher than 15% in the third quarter, becoming stable. At the same time, the per capita new business value of personal insurance reached 52000 yuan (+ 24%), which is at the high point in recent years, which supports the manpower scale and quality of personal insurance channels. At the same time, the surrender rate tended to be stable, with a 14 month surrender rate of 80.5%, a month on month decline of 0.7%, a 26 month surrender rate of 81.1%, a month on month decline of 0.5%, and a significant improvement in the month on month decline.
Investment business: in the second half of the year, the portfolio structure continued to adjust, the proportion of bonds increased significantly, the proportion of equity decreased, and the risk aversion tendency was obvious. The proportion of bonds increased by nearly 6 percentage points, increased by 300 billion yuan month on month, the scale of equity was stable, and the proportion decreased by nearly 2 percentage points. The allocation of stocks decreased by 350 billion yuan month on month, and the allocation of other equity investments increased by nearly 150 billion yuan month on month. It is expected that the duration gap will narrow, and the risk aversion tendency of equity assets is obvious. The annual return on net investment was 4.38%, up 4 basis points year-on-year, and the total return on investment was 4.98%, down 32 basis points year-on-year, mainly affected by the increase of asset value loss.
Investment suggestion: pay attention to the month on month data of individual insurance channels and maintain the “buy” rating.
We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 59.8/664/82.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13 / 14 / 13%; Diluted EPS is 2.1/2.4/2.9 yuan, and the corresponding PEV of the current stock price is 0.53/0.46/0.41x. In view of the improvement of the quality of individual insurance channels, we expect the decline of manpower in the first half of the year to converge month on month, support the performance and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: long-term interest rate declines; New order sales fell year-on-year.
