\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 328 Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) )
Core view
The performance in 2021 is in line with expectations, and the growth rate has increased steadily. In 2021, the annual revenue was 269.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with a growth rate of 1.5 percentage points higher than that in the first three quarters, mainly due to the contribution of other non interest income; The annual PPOP increased by 9.5% year-on-year, down 1.8 percentage points from the first three quarters, mainly due to the increase of cost income ratio due to base factor; The annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 87.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. The annual net profit attributable to the parent company increased by an average of 6.5% in two years, up 3.1 percentage points from the first three quarters. 2021 weighted roe10 8%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year.
The scale of assets expanded steadily. In 2021, the total assets increased by 9.1% year-on-year to 11.67 trillion yuan. The growth rate was slightly higher than that in the previous period, but basically remained near the industry average level. Among them, deposits increased by 6.5% year-on-year to 7.04 trillion yuan, and loans increased by 12.2% year-on-year to 6.56 trillion yuan; At the end of the year, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 10.62%, basically the same as that at the end of the third quarter.
The net interest margin remained stable. The company’s annual average daily net interest margin was 1.56%, a year-on-year decrease of 1bp, basically flat; The net interest margin after tax exemption was 1.77%, which was also flat year-on-year. From the perspective of single quarter net interest margin, the net interest margin in recent quarters is basically about 1.55%, with little change. Among them, the annual loan yield decreased by 22bps year-on-year, the deposit interest rate decreased by 10bps, the deposit loan interest margin narrowed, and the company’s net interest margin remained stable, mainly due to the significant reduction of interbank financing costs.
The net income from handling charges increased slightly. In 2021, the net fee income increased by 5.5% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the company’s rapid growth in the business income of financial management and fund sales on a commission basis by taking building the brand characteristics of wealth management as the starting point. In 2021, the net fee income increased by 2.5 billion yuan, of which financial management and commission sales contributed 3.4 billion yuan.
The cost income ratio increased slightly due to the influence of the base. In 2021, the business and management fees increased by 12.9% year-on-year, and the cost income ratio increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the year-on-year low base brought by the social security policy.
Asset quality improved and provision coverage continued to rise. The estimated non-performing rate in 2021 is 0.80%, with a year-on-year decrease of 59bps. The company’s provision coverage at the end of the year reached 167%, an increase of 10 percentage points over the end of the third quarter and 23 percentage points over the beginning of the year. In addition, the non-performing rate of the company at the end of the year was 1.48%, falling quarter by quarter; The attention rate was 1.35%, down 6bps from the beginning of the year; Non performing / overdue 111%, an increase of 3 percentage points over the beginning of the year.
Investment advice: sound fundamentals and high dividend yield. We slightly adjusted the profit forecast according to the latest LPR adjustment and other factors. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 93.5/99.5/105.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.8/6.4/5.7%; Diluted EPS is 1.26/1.34/1.42 yuan; The current share price corresponds to PE of 3.7/3.5/3.3x and Pb of 0.41/0.38/0.35x, maintaining the “overweight” rating. The advantage of the company lies in its sound fundamentals, and the dividend yield is expected to exceed 8% in the next few years.
Risk tip: the weakening macroeconomic situation may have an adverse impact on the quality of bank assets.
