\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 328 Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) )
Key investment points
Data overview
In 2021, Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) net profit attributable to parent company was + 11.9% year-on-year and the growth rate was – 10.2pc month on month; Revenue + 9.4% year-on-year and growth rate + 1.6pc month on month; ROE10. 8%, year-on-year + 0.4pc; ROA0. 80%, year-on-year + 3bp. At the end of 2021, the non-performing balance was – 6.5% month on month, the non-performing rate was 1.48%, the month on month ratio was – 12bp, the provision coverage rate was 167%, and the month on month ratio was + 10pc.
Increase in revenue growth
Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) 2021 revenue + 9.4% year on year, growth rate + 1.6pc month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was + 11.9% year-on-year and the growth rate was – 10.2pc month on month, which was attributed to the fading of the low base effect. Specifically, in Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) 2021, the net interest income increased by + 5.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was + 0.9% month on month. Due to the increase in the amount and price of assets, the growth rate of assets at the end of 2021 increased by 2.8pc to 9.1% month on month, and the single quarter interest margin in 21q4 increased by + 5bp to 1.59% month on month; Non interest income increased by + 16.0% year-on-year and + 2.9% month on month. The year-on-year growth rate of medium income and other non interest income increased month on month; The loan impairment loss was + 9.8% year-on-year, which was attributed to the company’s increasing provision in the case of uncertain environment. Looking forward to the future, Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) strong credit granting ability and accelerated promotion of wealth management strategy will strongly support the performance.
Asset negative structure optimization
From the perspective of both asset and negative assets: ① on the asset side, the loan investment has been strengthened. The growth rate of 21q4 loan has increased 1pc to 12.2% month on month, and the loan growth rate is the highest in recent 8 years. It is worth noting that the proportion of high-yield retail loans increased. 21q4 retail loans increased by + 3.9% month on month, 2.4pc faster than the total loans, which strongly supported the interest margin. ② On the liability side, the deposit structure was optimized. The proportion of demand deposits at the end of 21q4 increased by 2.8pc to 41.4% compared with that at the end of 21q3. According to the performance press conference, the company’s RMB loans increased by 77.8 billion yuan year-on-year at the end of February 2022. At the same time, the retail transformation was strengthened, and the planned allocation of retail loans accounted for 46% (3pc higher than that in 2021). Strong credit supply capacity and promotion of retail transformation will strongly support the interest margin.
Wealth management force
① from the perspective of income, the income in 2021a Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) was + 5.5% year-on-year and the growth rate was + 2.2pc month on month, which was mainly due to the high growth of income in wealth management and + 24.3% year-on-year. ② In terms of scale, the Aum of 21a retail reached 4.26 trillion, an increase of 9.3% over the beginning of the year, and that of private banks reached 1 trillion, an increase of 6.2pc to 19.4% over the end of 21h1. ③ From the perspective of customers, the growth rate of medium and high-end customers increased by 5.6pc to 15.3% compared with 21h1. The acceleration of wealth management strategy will continue to contribute to revenue growth.
Double reduction of defects
① in terms of stock index, the balance of 21q4 Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) non-performing loans was – 6.5% month on month; The non-performing rate decreased by 12bp to 1.48% month on month, which was the first time to achieve double reduction in recent three years; The concern rate of 21q4 decreased by 3bp to 1.35% month on month, and the overdue rate decreased significantly by 19bp to 1.33% month on month. The ability of risk offset was enhanced, and the provision coverage increased by 10pc to 167% month on month. ② In terms of dynamic indicators, the net generation rate of 21a bad TTM decreased by 22bp to 0.81% compared with 21h1. With the accelerated progress of risk disposal, it is expected that the quality of Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) assets will continue to improve.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the net profit attributable to Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) parent company will increase by 7.1% / 6.6% / 6.9% year-on-year, corresponding to bps11 52 / 12.45/13.44 yuan. Maintain the target price of 7.21 yuan, corresponding to 0.63 times Pb in 2022. The current price corresponds to pb0.00 in 202243 times, 47% of the current price space, buy rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall and sharp outbreak of adverse.
