\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 202 Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 50.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.12%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.65%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.993 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.33% and EPS of 0.79 yuan.
The sales volume of large fans increased rapidly, with significant cost reduction and efficiency increase. The company continued to promote the industrialization progress of sea wind turbine units, and the industrialization of 6S / 8s platform products progressed smoothly. Under the tide of sea wind rush loading, the company completed the delivery and grid connection of all orders of offshore projects, and the delivery volume exceeded the sum of offshore delivery volume in previous years. Therefore, the sales volume of the company’s 6 / 8s model is 1.95gw, with a year-on-year increase of 305.01%, accounting for 18.26% from 3.61% in 2020 (annual sales volume is 11.8gw), and the large-scale fan is significantly accelerated. Correspondingly, the sales volume of 1.5MW and 2S small models decreased by 80.06% and 61.6% year-on-year. Large scale diluted unit manufacturing cost. In 021, the unit cost of the company’s fan decreased by 7.06% year-on-year to 2.7 yuan / W, which accelerated and was greater than the decline of the average delivery price, driving the company’s overall fan business profit to recover upward. In 021, the gross profit margin of the company’s fan business increased by about 3.4pp year-on-year, and the annual gross profit margin was 18.0%.
With efficient delivery of medium speed permanent magnet products and sufficient orders on hand, it is expected to achieve rapid and large-scale production from 2022. The transmission chain of the new generation of medium speed permanent magnet products is designed more reasonably and the reliability of the whole machine is higher. It has won a large number of orders on hand and delivered quickly. The annual sales volume is 108.5mw. At present, it has been delivered and connected to the grid in many commercial projects in Xinjiang, Gansu and other places, and the products have achieved a breakthrough. In terms of hand orders, at present, the company’s medium speed permanent magnet has 2.5gw of orders to be executed, and has won the bid for 2.3gw of orders that have not been signed. On the one hand, it confirms that the company’s medium speed permanent magnet products have been widely recognized by the downstream, on the other hand, it also fully ensures the future shipments, which is expected to grow rapidly from 2022.
The orders of fans in hand remain stable, and the leading position of market share is stable. By the end of 2021, the company’s external orders on hand were 16.9gw, an increase of 1.82% month on month. There is a clear guarantee for future shipments. The company continues to maintain the leading position of wind turbine. According to bnef statistics, the company added 1.38gw of installed capacity in China in 2021, accounting for 20% of China’s market share, ranking first in China for 11 consecutive years; The world’s newly installed capacity is 12.04gw, with a global market share of 12.14%, ranking second in the world. During the “14th five year plan” period, the wind power installation demand driven by the scenery base and the “wind control plan for thousands of villages and villages” is good for a long time, and the leading position of the company’s wind turbine is expected to be maintained for a long time.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. In 2021, the profitability of all businesses of the company will be greatly improved. In the future, the sales of wind turbines and parts, wind power services and wind farm development business of the company will continue to grow and further improve the profitability of the company. We expect the compound growth rate of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company to be 23% in the next three years, maintaining the “hold” rating.
Risk warning: the risk that the installed capacity of wind power is less than expected; The risk of rising raw material prices and declining profitability of the company; The risk of intensified competition due to the change of market pattern of complete fan; Risks of policy changes.
