\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 080 Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) )
The structure of glass fiber products continues to be optimized, and the high volume and price continues to be high. By the end of 2020, the company’s high-end production capacity (wind power yarn, thermoplastic products and industrial spinning) accounted for about 65%. At the same time, the expansion of high value-added products such as industrial spinning and high-strength and high modulus glass fiber yarn was accelerated, and the product structure was continuously optimized. On the cost side, the company achieved partial self-sufficiency in pyrophyllite and natural gas, the core raw materials of glass fiber. After the subsequent production of activated limestone, the self supply proportion of raw materials will continue to increase, and the cost control ability will be further enhanced to create a cost moat. From the perspective of supply and demand of the glass fiber industry, the new production capacity in 22 years is limited, the supply and demand still match, and the high outlook of the industry is expected to continue. As the second largest glass fiber enterprise in China, the company’s production capacity maintains stable growth and fully benefits from the high outlook of the industry.
The market share of wind power blades ranks first in China, leading the trend of light weight and large-scale. In the wind power blade business, the company has maintained the first market share in the industry for ten years. From raw materials to R & D, design and production to product promotion, the company has formed an efficient industrial chain operation mode. According to the Beijing Declaration on wind energy, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the annual installed capacity of wind power in China will not be less than 50gw. Under the background of double carbon, wind power as a clean energy ushers in a period of rapid development, while the company has built a cost advantage in the integrated glass fiber and blade industrial chain and continued to consolidate its leading position; With the gradual increase of the installed proportion of sea wind, the large-scale of wind power blades has become a trend. The company has strengthened cooperation with complete machine manufacturers outside China and launched 100 m / 10MW large-scale blades. At the same time, in 2021, the company took the lead in promoting the large-scale application of carbon glass hybrid blades in the industry and leading the development trend of blades.
In the past 21 years, the lithium film business turned losses into profits, and the product a rate and profitability continued to improve. After the acquisition of Hunan Zhongli in 2019, the market share of the company’s lithium film business jumped to the second in the industry. By the end of 2021, the company has a total base film production capacity of about 1.5 billion square meters. After the new production capacity in Tengzhou, Hohhot and Nanjing is put into operation, it is estimated that the annual production capacity of new base film will be 3.128 billion square meters, and the ratio of coating capacity will be about 1:2. In 2021, the rate of product a of the company’s newly put into operation production line can reach more than 80%, and the profitability continues to improve. In 2021, the lithium film business will turn losses into profits; In the future, with the new production capacity put into operation and the technical transformation of the old production line, the production efficiency is expected to continue to improve. Under the background of the increasing demand for power batteries, the lithium film business is expected to become a new performance growth point of the company.
The on-board hydrogen storage bottle realizes mass production and continues to consolidate the leading position of hydrogen storage bottle. In 2020, the company integrated the assets of the high-pressure gas cylinder business and transferred 100% equity of Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) (Chengdu) to Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) (Suzhou). Sinoma Suzhou became the main business entity of the gas cylinder business. In the natural gas (CNG) business, the market share of the company’s CNG gas cylinder business remained the first for many consecutive years, and the supporting share of complete vehicles exceeded 60%. In CNG Cylinder business, the company has successfully explored lightweight and large volume products, and basically solved the risk of bottom air leakage; In terms of hydrogen storage cylinder business, we will strengthen the layout of type IV hydrogen storage cylinders. The company will carry out joint research with upstream carbon fiber enterprises to accelerate the domestic substitution of high-strength and high modulus hydrogen cylinders. In the future, with the outbreak of hydrogen energy, the market space will be broad.
Investment suggestion: the company is the industry leader in many sectors such as glass fiber, wind power blade, lithium membrane and hydrogen storage bottle. It has both the glass fiber business with high prosperity and the fan blade, lithium membrane and hydrogen storage bottle business with high growth benefiting from the development of clean energy. We predict that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 / 24 years will be 4.103/45.88/5.35 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 2.44/2.73/3.19 yuan respectively, and the PE valuation will be 9.95/8.9/7.63 times. Referring to the valuation of comparable companies, Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) is higher than the average valuation of glass fiber companies on a year-on-year basis. Considering the company’s business in lithium membrane, fan blades and other new energy sectors, the company is given 15-18 times PE based on 22-year EPS, corresponding to the 22-year target price of 36.6-43.92 yuan. The company is rated as “buy” for the first time.
Risk warning: the installed capacity of onshore wind power in Shanghai is less than expected; Tighter environmental control affects capacity expansion and glass fiber yarn production; Solid state battery development exceeded expectations; The demand of emerging industries is lower than expected.
