\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 799 Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) )
The performance was slightly lower than expected. In 2021, the annual revenue was 7.909 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 949 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 847 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.8%; In the fourth quarter, the revenue was 2.251 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% and a month on month increase of 31.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 211 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.4% and a month on month increase of 24.9%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 181 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.7% and a month on month increase of 25.0%. Due to the comprehensive impact of rising raw material prices, increased labor and manufacturing costs, and increased R & D investment, the company’s profitability in 2021 is slightly under pressure. In 2021, the company plans to pay a dividend of 1.1 yuan per share to shareholders.
In 2021, the gross profit margin was under pressure in the whole year and the fourth quarter, and the cash flow declined. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the gross profit margin was 16.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4 percentage points and a month on month decrease of 4.6 percentage points; The annual gross profit margin was 22.1%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year. In 2021, the company reclassified transportation expenses and storage expenses from sales expenses to operating costs according to accounting standards; After retroactive adjustment of the 2020 financial statements, the gross profit margin in 2020 under the same caliber was 26.0%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9 percentage points. The decline in gross profit margin is expected to be mainly due to the rise in raw materials, labor costs and manufacturing costs. Under the same caliber, the cost rate in 2021 increased by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, of which the R & D cost rate increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The net cash flow from operating activities in the whole year was 520 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 72.3%, which is expected to be mainly due to the increase of purchase payment and employee compensation.
The company has abundant orders, develops new products and consolidates its competitive advantage. The company focuses on automobile lamp assembly manufacturing and scheme design. Its main customers include Chinese foreign automobile enterprises and new forces such as SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC GM, Guangfeng, guangben, BMW, Hongqi, Geely, Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal. In 2021, the company undertook 62 new model development projects and batch produced 42 new models. In 2021, it undertook about 13.5 billion yuan of new project orders, and in 2022, it has undertaken about 4 billion yuan of new project orders. The new projects are expected to contribute revenue and profits in 18-24 months. The company actively strengthens the development and application of new technologies and develops a series of new products such as intelligent headlamp module based on DMD and micro led, HMI gesture recognition indoor lamp, matrix indoor lamp, smart RGB atmosphere lamp and so on. It is expected that new customers, new projects and new products will consolidate the company’s competitive advantage in the field of lamps and provide new momentum for the continuous growth of the company’s performance.
Continue to promote the layout of R & D center and production capacity. The company has established research institutes in Changzhou and R & D centers in Shanghai, Wuhan and other places to actively carry out research on lamps and automotive electronics, constantly explore new business areas and lay a solid foundation for the long-term development of the company. In terms of production capacity, the phase II integrated factory and phase III logistics center project of the intelligent manufacturing industrial park have been officially put into use, and the construction of mold factory and electronic factory has been started one after another; The construction of overseas Serbian factories is progressing steadily. It is expected that European customer projects will enter the batch production stage from 2022. It is expected that the intelligent manufacturing industrial park project and the production of Serbian factories will improve the company’s production capacity and intelligent manufacturing capacity, and help the company’s revenue and profit grow steadily.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Considering the supporting quantity of lamps and the cost pressure of upstream raw materials, adjusting the revenue, gross profit margin and expense rate, it is predicted that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.50 yuan, 5.82 yuan and 7.13 yuan respectively (5.93 yuan and 7.23 yuan from 22 to 23 years). According to the 22-year PE valuation and referring to the comparable company, 37 times the PE valuation in 22 years will be given, and the target price will be 166.5 yuan to maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips
The demand of passenger car industry is lower than expected, and the supporting quantity of headlamp and rear combination lamp is lower than expected.
