\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 948 Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) )
Highlights of the annual report: 1. The growth rate of revenue and profit before provision became positive, and the net profit maintained a high growth rate of more than 20% year-on-year. Supported by non interest income, the annual growth rates of revenue and profit before provision were 5.7% and 5.1% respectively. Under the sound asset quality, the provision released profits, and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit continued to maintain an upward trend, with a year-on-year increase of 22.1%. 2. The retail end accounted for 42.7%, and the annual consumption and operation loan force. The growth of personal loans of the company is mainly due to the growth of consumer loans (including credit cards), accounting for 28.4%. The specific growth drivers are digital transformation, promoting the independent online of consumer loans and the rapid development of credit card business. 3. Net non interest income was + 46.0% year-on-year, mainly contributed by net other non interest income. At the same time, the handling fee income of Zhongshou wealth continued to maintain a good growth. The net handling fee income was + 15.8% year-on-year, with a significant increase compared with – 9.6% in the third quarter. It was mainly supported by the income from financial services and agency services, with growth rates of + 25.5% and + 11.4% respectively. Net other non interest income was + 119% year-on-year, mainly driven by the rise in investment income. 4. The asset quality has been continuously improved, the non-performing rate has decreased, and the non-performing pressure in the future is limited. The non-performing rate in the fourth quarter was 1.34%, down 13 BP month on month. At present, the non-performing rate is the lowest level since 2016. From the perspective of future non-performing pressure, the proportion of concerned loans decreased 2bp to 1.03% month on month, and the company’s future non-performing pressure is limited. Q4 provision coverage was 197.49%, up 17.0pct month on month; The loan allocation ratio decreased 1bp to 2.64% month on month.
Insufficient annual report: the annualized interest rate spread in a single quarter decreased by 3bp month on month, mainly dragged down by the asset side. The return on assets fell 5bp to 3.76% month on month. The downward trend of asset side income is expected to have two factors: structure and interest rate. On the one hand, the interest rate of newly issued loans is affected by the downward trend of interest rate center. At the same time, the proportion of loans in structure decreases by 1.2 percentage points, which has dragged down the rate of return on assets to a certain extent.
Investment suggestion: the current share price of the company corresponds to 2022e and 2023epb0 59X/0.52X； PE4. 49x / 3.94x (City Commercial Bank pb0.70x / 0.63x, pe6.02x / 5.33x). Based in Qingdao and rooted in Shandong, the company has a high-quality and diversified shareholder structure. Senior executives are selected through market-oriented employment and have profound industry cognition and market-oriented management concept. With the continuous promotion of the company’s “interface bank” strategy, digital transformation promotes the improvement of business and management, and the business potential gradually bursts out. It is recommended to maintain the “overweight” rating.
Adjustment of profit forecast: according to the annual report of 2021, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 will be RMB 122.91/141.45/16.275 billion, with a growth rate of 10.4% / 15.1% / 15.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 33.77/38.54/4.395 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.6% / 14.1% / 14.0%. Adjustment of core assumptions: 1 Considering that the policy continues to guide financial institutions to transfer profits to entities, the net interest margin of the industry is under pressure, the net interest margin of Q4 of the company stabilizes and the retail assets grow rapidly, the adjusted loan yield is 5.15% / 5.15% / 5.15%; The bond investment yield is 2.90% / 2.90% / 2.90%. 2. The interest payment rate of the company’s deposits increased steadily and slightly, and the adjusted interest payment rate was 2.05% / 2.05% / 2.05%. 3. The company’s stock risk continues to be cleared, the asset quality is better, and the future non-performing pressure is small. The adjusted provision expenditure / average loan is 1.60% / 1.60% / 1.60%.
Risk tip: the macro economy is facing downward pressure, and the operating performance is lower than expected.
