\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 189 Hunan Nucien Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688189) )
Events. The company announced the 2021 performance express. The company’s operating revenue in 2021 is expected to be 688 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.81%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -176 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 232.41%; The net profit after deduction is expected to be -192 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 253.29%.
According to the estimation of the performance express, the operating revenue of Q4 in 2021 is expected to be 123 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 49%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be – 225 million yuan; The net profit after deduction is expected to be – 230 million yuan.
Viewpoint: the company’s revenue and performance in 2021 are affected by covid-19 epidemic, consistency evaluation and centralized purchase in China.
\u3000\u30001. The company’s revenue and performance in 2021 were affected by covid-19 epidemic, consistency evaluation and centralized purchase in China. Since covid-19 is highly similar to the symptoms of influenza, with fever, dry cough, fatigue and other symptoms, the terminal medical institutions have taken strong control measures for the fever clinic, and the flow of people has decreased sharply, resulting in a significant reduction in the demand of the terminal medical institutions for the company’s product “Liwei” (palamivir sodium chloride injection). Affected by this, the sales revenue of the company’s core product “Liwei” in 2021 decreased by about 433 million yuan compared with that in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of more than 50%, directly reducing the gross profit by about 350 million yuan. Affected by the national generic drug conformity evaluation policy, the sales revenue of the company’s product “simvastatin dispersible tablets” in 2021 decreased by about 57.18 million yuan compared with 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 62.57%. The company’s product “kefule capsule” (cefaclor capsule) entered the national centralized procurement catalogue of pharmaceutical products at the end of 2020. The sales revenue in 2021 decreased by about 68.76 million yuan year-on-year compared with 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 67.67%. The sales revenue of other products of the company in 2021 shows a certain increase compared with that in 2020, but the proportion in the sales revenue of 2021 is low, and the contribution to the sales revenue of 2021 is limited.
\u3000\u30002. Re sort out the company’s investment logic Hunan Nucien Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688189) holding 1 + 2 + X Innovation & Consumer Product echelon. The stock variety of pramivir injection is expected to resume growth after the epidemic is stable, and the sales peak is expected to reach 2-3 billion. Rabies monoclonal antibody has the international quality of both China and the United States, and has the attribute of innovation + consumption. Only two enterprises will compete in the 10 billion market in 3-5 years, and the peak sales is expected to reach several billion. Pramivir inhalation solution is a high barrier dosage form, attacking the home drug market and benchmarking Kewei. The peak sales are also expected to reach several billion levels. There are other pipelines in the follow-up. They are of good quality and have a lot to see.
Profit forecast and valuation. According to the performance express, we adjusted the profit forecast. Without considering the consolidation of Xingmeng biology for the time being, we expect the operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be 688 million yuan, 885 million yuan and 1.140 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 36.8%, 28.6% and 28.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -176 million yuan, 104 million yuan and 147 million yuan respectively, with the corresponding growth rates of – 232.4%, – 159.2% and 40.6% respectively. The EPS was -1.26 yuan, 0.74 yuan and 1.05 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE was – 19x, 32x and 22x respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of product sales falling short of expectations; Risk of product R & D failure; Risk of negative impact of industrial policy; Risk of failure in major asset restructuring.
