\u3000\u30 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 06 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) )
Key investment points
The sanitary napkin business grew steadily and the product structure continued to upgrade
In terms of products, (1) sanitary napkins: the income of 21a is 1.184 billion yuan (+ 25.04%), accounting for 80.96% (+ 5.22pct), and the gross profit margin is 50.65% (+ 0.13pct). Among them, the income of free point brand has reached 95%, and the structure has been continuously optimized; The revenue of 21h2 was 574 million yuan (+ 16.16%), accounting for 81.65% (+ 4.97 PCT), and the gross profit margin was 48.78% (- 1.06 PCT). The increase of 21h2 promotion and the reduction of revenue led to a slight decline in the gross profit margin. During the period, the company expanded the organic pure cotton product series, carried out iterative upgrading for the series of senseless seven days and comfortable sleep products, and continuously optimized the product structure. (2) Diapers: the income of 21a is 148 million yuan (- 3.86%), accounting for 10.14% (- 2.20 PCT), and the gross profit margin is 16.79% (+ 2.24 PCT); The revenue of 21h2 is 69 million yuan (- 9.06%), accounting for 9.78% (- 1.95 PCT), and the gross profit margin is 16.48% (+ 0.55 PCT). During the period, the intensified competition pattern, the decline in the number of newborns and other factors led to a decline in income. (3) ODM business: the revenue of 21a is 130 million yuan (- 12.69%), accounting for 8.90% (- 3.03pct) and the gross profit margin is 22.47% (+ 0.61pct); The revenue of 21h2 is 60 million yuan (- 19.32%), accounting for 8.57% (- 3.02 PCT), and the gross profit margin is 25.38% (+ 7.63 PCT). ODM business is non core and affected by the performance of major customers, and the revenue has declined.
The e-commerce reform has achieved initial results, and the epidemic has slightly dragged down the growth rate in some regions
In terms of channels, (1) offline channels: 21a's revenue is 1.123 billion yuan (+ 18.43%), accounting for 76.75% (+ 0.95pct), gross profit margin is 49.20% (+ 2.07pct), offline market share has reached 4.5%, and the growth rate is the first among domestic brands; The revenue of 21h2 is 523 million yuan (+ 8.08%), accounting for 74.48% (-0.69pct) and the gross profit margin is 48.90% (+ 1.74pct). Among them, the channel revenue of 21a dealers is 857 million yuan (+ 21.77%), accounting for 58.74% (+ 2.30pct) and the gross profit margin is 50.60% (+ 2.56pct). The company has a solid foundation for offline distribution and continues to achieve beautiful growth; The growth rate of the channel was 17.8 billion yuan (+ 21.8%) and the gross profit rate accounted for 36.8% of the total revenue of the industry. (2) E-commerce channel: 21a's revenue is 210 million yuan (+ 36.81%), accounting for 14.35% (+ 2.08 PCT), and the gross profit margin is 34.52% (- 0.78 PCT); The revenue of 21h2 is 119 million yuan (+ 39.67%), accounting for 16.95% (+ 3.71 PCT) and the gross profit margin is 29.66% (- 5.11 PCT). 21h1 company reformed e-commerce channels and turned to multi platform development + online distribution strategy; The reform of 21h2 achieved initial results, and the income growth rate increased to 39.67% (33.23% in 21h1).
In terms of sub regions, (1) Sichuan and Chongqing: 21a income is 614 million yuan (+ 15.73%), accounting for 42.00% (- 0.45pct); The revenue of 21h2 was 279 million yuan (+ 5.41%), accounting for 39.75 (- 1.39 PCT). The performance of Sichuan Chongqing base camp grew steadily (the offset of offline promotion expenses and income slightly affected the apparent growth), and the market share continued to rise. The market share of Chongqing was + 6 PCT and Sichuan + 6.6 PCT year-on-year. (2) Yunnan, Guizhou and Shaanxi: the income of 21a is 336 million yuan (+ 24.91%), accounting for 22.94% (+ 1.46pct); The income of 21h2 was 160 million yuan (+ 13.91%), accounting for 22.75% (+ 0.96pct). The outbreak of Q4 in Shaanxi dragged down the regional growth. From the perspective of market share, the market share of Guizhou is + 9.5pct and that of Yunnan is + 10PCT year-on-year. The sub new region continues to perform well. (3) Lianghu and others: the income of 21a is 173 million yuan (+ 16.37%), accounting for 11.82% (- 0.06pct); The revenue of 21h2 was 84 million yuan (+ 6.69%), accounting for 11.98% (-0.27pct), and the overall growth was stable.
Product iteration + channel upgrading + incentive in place, optimistic about the improvement of medium and long-term market share
(1) product iterative innovation and continuous upgrading of structure: during the period, the company increased R & D investment, focused on functional & sense of use upgrading, and the R & D expense rate of 21a was 3.48% (+ 1.09pct). In terms of the new rhythm of product iteration and promotion, during the period, the organic pure cotton series of new products were launched and the series of iteration and upgrading such as senseless seven days. At the same time, the company launched small y-core & comfortable sleep series of new products for e-commerce channels. At present, the company has new product reserves and looks forward to the continuous upgrading of product structure after the promotion of new products. (2) upgrading of the electricity supplier channel, and upgrading the new platform: the electricity channel reform in the period (the regroup team has expanded the new platform + the introduction of online distribution preemptive share) has achieved initial success. In the second half of 21, the company began to increase its new platform, such as jitter, red book and many spells, and the growth rate is tiktok. It is expected that the new platform will continue to invest in high growth for 22 years. (3) Release of equity incentive and independent assessment of online business: during the period, the company issued a wide range of equity incentive plan (covering 568 employees, accounting for 28% of the total number of employees), fully mobilizing the enthusiasm of employees. In terms of assessment objectives, the revenue in 22-24 years is no less than RMB 1.814/21.88/2.689 billion, and cagr21.5 billion in three years 77%； The profit shall not be less than 256 / 301 / 356 million yuan, and the three-year cagr18 02%； Independent assessment of online business, with online revenue of no less than RMB 338 / 491 / 690 million in 22-24 years and cagr43.5 billion in three years 02%, demonstrating the company's importance and confidence in the development of e-commerce.
The optimization of product structure leads to the rise of profitability, and the investment of brand expenses is strengthened
In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin of 21a is 44.71% (+ 2.05pct) and the net profit margin is 15.32% (+ 0.76pct); The gross profit margin of 21q4 is 43.27% (+ 2.35pct) and the net profit margin is 14.38% (-0.85pct). The optimization of product structure drives the upward profitability. In terms of period expense rate, the expense rate of 21a period is 27.46% (+ 2.79pct), including sales expense rate of 19.07% (+ 1.33pct) and management + R & D expense rate of 8.61% (+ 1.42pct); During the 21q4 period, the expense rate was 29.64% (+ 7.35pct), of which the sales expense rate was 19.93% (+ 4.02pct) and the management + R & D expense rate was 9.85% (+ 3.25pct). During the period, the brand expense was continuously increased. In terms of cash flow, 21a's operating cash flow was 197 million yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 54 million yuan) and 21q4's operating cash flow was 71 million yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 36 million yuan).
Profit forecast and valuation
The company's deep cultivation in Sichuan and Chongqing, smooth expansion in peripheral areas, continuous optimization of product structure and improvement of channel construction, and is optimistic that the market share of the company will continue to increase. We expect that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1.819/2.196/2.693 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 24.34% / 20.73% / 22.63%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 258 / 307 / 369 million, with a year-on-year increase of 13.26% / 18.99% / 20.37%, and the corresponding PE was 21.63x/18.17x/15.10x respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
Repeated impact of the epidemic, rising raw materials, less than expected regional expansion and less than expected channel reform
