\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 585 Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) )
After the release of the parent company’s annual report, the non parent company’s sales volume was -313.4 billion, with a year-on-year net profit of -33.75 billion and a year-on-year net profit of -13.75 billion. After the release of the annual report, the non parent company realized a year-on-year net profit of -13.74 billion, with a year-on-year net profit of -33.53 billion. Among them, the revenue in the fourth quarter was 46.242 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 11.5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 10.877 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent after deduction of non-profit was 10.316 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.7%. The annual net profit rate of sales was 20.34%, year-on-year -0.29pct, and the net profit rate of Q4 was 24.21%, year-on-year + 3.59pct.
Ton index performance: the price increased by 35.5 yuan year-on-year
In 2021, the average price of cement and clinker per ton is 360.56 yuan (year-on-year + 35.5 yuan), the cost per ton is 203.44 yuan (year-on-year + 32.5 yuan), and the gross profit per ton is 157 yuan (year-on-year + 3 yuan). The cost per ton is 27.9 yuan (year-on-year + 5 yuan), of which the sales cost per ton is 11.2 yuan (year-on-year – 1.5 yuan), the management cost per ton is 16.7 yuan (year-on-year + 3.8 yuan), the R & D cost per ton is 4.3 yuan (year-on-year + 2.3 yuan), and the financial cost per ton is – 4.3 yuan (year-on-year + 0.3 yuan). The net profit per ton (excluding non parent standard) was 103 yuan, year-on-year + 1.1 yuan, and the net profit per ton (net profit standard) was 112 yuan, year-on-year + 0.5 yuan.
Both self-produced and trade sales decreased, and the cost of fuel and power increased
In 2021, the total net sales volume of cement clinker was 409 million tons, a year-on-year increase of – 9.76%, of which the sales volume of self products was 304 million tons, a year-on-year increase of – 6.53%, and the trade volume was 105 million tons, a year-on-year increase of – 18%. In terms of cost, the comprehensive cost per ton of cement clinker (self-produced products) was 203.44 yuan, an increase of 32.5 yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of fuel and power costs accounting for 55.44%, 112.74 yuan per ton of fuel and power costs (year-on-year + 26 yuan), 12.66 yuan per ton of depreciation expenses (year-on-year + 1 yuan), 31.88 yuan per ton of labor and others (year-on-year + 2.9 yuan), accounting for 46.1 yuan per ton of raw materials (year-on-year + 0.9 yuan).
Capital expenditure overweight
In 2021, the capital expenditure is about 16.02 billion yuan, which is mainly used for project construction, Project M & A and technological transformation of energy conservation, carbon reduction and environmental protection. By the end of 2021, the company had 269 million tons of clinker (7.2 million tons newly added), 384 million tons of cement (14.25 million tons newly added), 65.8 million tons of aggregate (7.5 million tons newly added), and 14.7 million cubic meters of commercial concrete (10.5 million cubic meters newly added). In addition, the newly listed installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation is 200MW (in August 2021, the company purchased 100% equity of conch new energy with 443 million yuan). In 2022, the capital expenditure was significantly expanded to 23.5 billion yuan for project construction, energy conservation and environmental protection technical transformation, M & A projects and equity investment expenditure. The company expects (excluding M & A) to add 4.6 million tons of clinker production capacity, 1.4 million tons of cement production capacity, 44 million tons of aggregate production capacity, 10.2 million cubic meters of commercial concrete production capacity, and the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation will reach 1GW.
Increase the proportion of dividends. The ratio of cash dividends to net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 37.91%, the current dividend rate is about 6.46%, and the dividend rates from 2019 to 2020 are 31.55% and 31.98% respectively. The monetary capital at the end of the period was about 69.5 billion yuan.
Investment suggestion: we suggest to pay attention to the infrastructure chain, and infrastructure investment is expected to play a “grasping” role to effectively hedge the downward pressure in 2022, especially Q1; Pay attention to the transformation and upgrading of old and new energy sources, and invest in green power leaders. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 33.5 billion, 33.5 billion and 32.1 billion. The corresponding dynamic PE of the stock price on March 25 is 6, 6 and 6x respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the weather change is less than expected; The epidemic situation affects the construction rhythm; The implementation of infrastructure projects is lower than expected.
