\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 799 Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) )
Core view
In 2021, the revenue increased by 8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter increased by 25% month on month Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) 2021 achieved a revenue of 7.91 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 950 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%. In the fourth quarter alone, the revenue was 2.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, a month on month increase of 31.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 210 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.4% and a month on month increase of 24.9%. On the whole, the company’s revenue performance in 2021 continued to exceed that of the industry. Due to the impact of various factors such as the epidemic, the prices of main raw materials of the company’s products increased. At the same time, labor costs and manufacturing costs increased more, and R & D investment increased. As a result, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 decreased by 18% year-on-year.
In 2021, the gross profit margin was under pressure, the expense rate increased slightly, and the R & D expenditure increased. After considering the change of accounting policies, the gross profit margin in 2021 was 22.1%, compared with 26.0% in the same period of last year, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.9pct, and the net profit margin was 12.0%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.8pct. The main reasons for the decline of the gross profit margin level were the rise of raw material costs, the rise of labor costs, the increase of manufacturing expenses caused by the conversion of new production capacity into fixed assets in Changzhou, etc. In 2021, the company’s four rate was 9.2%, and in 2020, the four rate was 7.7% under comparable standards, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5pct. In 2021, the company actively carried out research on lamps and automotive electronics, and the R & D expense rate increased by 0.7pct to 4.9%. The stock customer Volkswagen has a significant decline due to the lack of core, and the incremental models are concentrated in the Japanese series. In 2021q4, China’s passenger car production was flat year-on-year, the sales volume decreased by 5%, and the revenue growth of Xingyu 21q4 was – 13%. 2021q4’s core customers’ production scheduling is affected by the lack of core. The sales end of Q4 is FAW Volkswagen – 23%, FAW Toyota + 12%, FAW Hongqi + 41%, GAC passenger car – 12%, Guangfeng and guangben – 0.4%, Chery + 3%, Dongfeng Nissan and dongben – 33%. Incremental models are mainly concentrated in Japan.
In 2021, new orders, new production capacity and new products continued to make breakthroughs. In 2021, Xingyu undertook 62 vehicle lamp projects (13.5 billion) and batch produced 42 new models. From January 1 to March 15, 2022, it undertook new project orders of about 4 billion yuan. At present, it has entered the new force (weixiaoli) and independent brand supplier system and obtained projects. The company will continue to promote the acquisition of ADB, DLP headlamp, atmosphere lamp and other lamp projects, and increase the proportion of high value-added products. The second and third phases of the intelligent industrial park have been officially put into use, and the construction of Serbian factories has been smooth. The projects from European main engine plants will enter the batch production stage from 2022. Risk tip: the risk of raw material price fluctuation and the risk of downstream production scheduling caused by chip shortage.
Investment suggestion: it has long-term potential as a global leader and maintains the buy rating
Industry side ADB and projection headlamp industry trend verification, the company side actively embraces forward-looking new technologies and front-end new customers, the industrial chain cooperates to expand the capacity circle, and overseas construction is progressing steadily. Considering the uncertainty of the epidemic situation, the impact of core shortage on production scheduling, the rise in the price of raw materials and other factors, we lowered the profit forecast, and expected the profit of 22 / 23 / 24 to be 14.1 / 18.2 / 23.1 (the early profit forecast was 1.57/21.9/2.75 billion), corresponding to PE 29 / 23 / 18x respectively. It has the potential of global lamp leader for a long time and maintains the buy rating.
