\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 605 Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) )
Key investment points
The company disclosed the announcement of pre increase of performance in the first quarter of 2022, and predicted Q1 revenue of 1.18-1.27 billion yuan, yoy30% – 40%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 148159 million yuan, yoy35% – 45%. According to the median forecast, the net interest rate of Q1 is about 12.6%, yoy + 0.5pct.
Single March: the predicted revenue is 550640 million yuan, yoy30% – 52%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 90-100 million, yoy34% – 51%. According to the median forecast, the net interest rate in March is about 15.8%, yoy + 0.3pct.
Q1 business highlights:
① the number of online multi-channel increase of main brands. According to the data of the business consultant, Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) tmall flagship store’s revenue from January to February was about 230 million, yoy exceeding 90%; According to tiktok data, Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) vibrate 1-2 months, earning about 120 million, yoy about 60%. During the tiktok promotion period, Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) Tmall channel yoy200%+, Tmall beauty makeup TOP5 and Tmall domestic products TOP1, yoy100%+ channel, the official tiktok V ranked TOP1, Jingdong channel ranked the 38 China skin care TOP1.
② the strategy of large single product is effective. During the “38” promotion period, sales of various star products were dazzling, and the sales volume of “early C night A” sales group was 78 thousand + pieces. The sale of double anti essence was 160 thousand + branch, the “Ruby essence” sold 39 thousand + branch, the “source power essence” Sales Volume 85 thousand + branch, “feather feeling sunscreen” sales volume 280 thousand + branch, the large single product has become the core driver of company growth.
③ the development of make-up is rapid. According to the business consultant data, the revenue of Caitang tmall flagship store from January to February was about 50.87 million; According to flying melon data, the income of tiktok is 1-2, and the income is 21 million 70 thousand, which is 10 times over the same period. During the “38” promotion period, Cai Tang GMV increased by 400%+ over the same period last year, breaking through last year’s GMV for 40 minutes. “Master repair sector” replaces Gao Guang TOP1, “master makeup milk” won the TOP4 before makeup, “double specular high gloss” and high gloss TOP3, and the new Concealer disk sprints the concealer TOP4; Founder Tang Yi airborne self broadcast, ranking the top 1 of cutting-edge beauty pounds on the same day. Tiktok self broadcast is the national makeup TOP2, with a total viewing volume of 60w+ and sales yoy+1800%.
④ marketing continues to break the circle. ” 38. The topic of “special planning” broke 120 million. The theme film “lion awakening girl” invited women’s football team member Wang Shuang to dub, and offline joint BabyCare, Little Swan, meituan takeout and other brands to launch joint advertising posters in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu and other cities, with a total of 450 million interactive communication during the promotion period.
Investment suggestion: buy rating
The company’s 6 n strategy has been continuously promoted, and high organizational efficiency has brought rapid response and keen demand insight. The main brand’s large single product strategy has achieved remarkable results, and the new brand Caitang has been preliminarily formed. At the same time, the company’s online marketing operation ability is outstanding, and its multi-channel performance is brilliant. In the future, the main brand will promote new upgrading + brand matrix expansion, and the performance is expected to maintain stable and high growth under the platform and ecology. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company will be 604 million, 746 million and 914 million in 21-23 years. The current share price corresponds to 49 and 40 times from 2022 to 2023, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the market space is less than expected, the progress of product approval and promotion is less than expected, the industry competition is intensified, and there are risks of error or lag in third-party data
