\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 38 Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 36.374 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.09%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.804 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 49.17%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 3.339 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.17%.
In 2021q4, the company’s revenue was 8.011 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 9.08%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 353 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 72.05%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 407 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 242.41%.
The performance meets the expectation, and the incentive expenses and investment income affect the apparent profit. The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company fell sharply in 2021. The core reason is the disturbance of profit and loss caused by investment. The profit and loss from changes in fair value of the company in 2021 was – 1.93 billion yuan, compared with + 2.24 billion yuan in the same period of last year. In addition, the share based payment fee in 2021 was 550 million yuan, a significant increase over the previous year’s 100 million yuan. According to the calculation of our model, if the impact of investment related disturbance and impairment is deducted (without adding back the incentive fee), the business contribution profit in 2021 will be about 3.7 billion, and the year-on-year growth rate is basically equivalent to 11% of the revenue end.
Securities investment has contracted significantly, and the subsequent disturbance will be reduced. According to the company’s announcement, the book balance of the company’s securities investment at the end of 2021 was 4.18 billion yuan, and the profit and loss in the reporting period was – 1.61 billion yuan; The book balance of the company’s investment in securities has shrunk significantly compared with 10.87 billion at the end of 2020. At present, the largest single securities investment of the company is 1.7 billion yuan of Xiaomi group (1810. HK). We expect that with the recovery of the follow-up market, the company is expected to continue to control the securities investment at a healthy level, and the disturbance to the overall performance will be smaller and smaller.
The main business is relatively stable, the profit of toothpaste is brilliant, and the decline of 21h2 growth rate may be disturbed by many factors. In 2021, the company’s industrial income was 12.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 8.4%, and its commercial income was 23.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 12.4%. Among them, the revenue of the subsidiary of health products (mainly toothpaste) was 5.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 9.7%. In the past 21 years, the market share exceeded 23%, maintaining the first position. The net profit was 2.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 19.5%, and the net interest rate increased by 3.14 PCT. We judged that it was caused by the continuous optimization of product structure. The income of the pharmaceutical industry (excluding health products, the rest including drugs and traditional Chinese medicine resources) was about 5.91 billion yuan, about + 10% year-on-year, with a stable performance. The net profit of provincial pharmaceutical (commercial) was 540 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 14.7%, which was mainly due to the decrease of 0.71 PCT in net interest rate. We judged that the reason was the increase in cost and the decrease in gross profit under centralized collection of drugs and equipment.
From the first and second half of the year, in 21h1, the revenue of health products subsidiary was + 22.5% year-on-year and – 3.8% year-on-year in the second half of the year; The 21h1 revenue of the parent company (pharmaceutical industry) was + 39.0% year-on-year and – 17.1% year-on-year in the second half of the year. The obvious change in the growth rate was mainly due to the different epidemic rhythm in 20 and 21 years and different impact on the business. In addition, the product terminal inventory level may also have a certain impact on product delivery.
Waiting for new products and new businesses. In recent years, the company has successively launched new products such as Panax notoginseng oral liquid, healing tea dazzle color CC toothpaste, oral repair gargle, Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) Zhihu tooth punch, and increased the product line of household medical devices through the acquisition of jinjianqiao. Strengthen the creation of platforms such as “Baiyao life +”, ” Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) Taibang healthy life experience hall” and “caizhiji AI private skin management center”, so as to broaden channels and reach terminals and customers, and try to enter the field of skin beauty and medical beauty; Baiyao life + has nearly 4 million users in 2021, and the Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) linkage is advancing smoothly.
Profit forecast: without considering the impact of strategic investment Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co.Ltd(601607) for the time being, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 4.75 billion yuan, 5.39 billion yuan and 5.98 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 69.5%, 13.5% and 10.9% respectively; EPS is 3.70 yuan, 4.20 yuan and 4.66 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 22x, 19x and 17x respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the growth rate of toothpaste slows down; The incentive effect is less than expected; The progress of new business is less than expected; The investment income fluctuates greatly and disturbs the performance; The rise in raw materials led to a decline in gross profit margin.
