\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 202 Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) )
Matters:
The company released its 2021 annual report, realizing an operating revenue of 50.571 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.12%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 3.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.65%, and a net profit of 2.993 billion yuan after deduction, a year-on-year increase of 8.33%. It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 2.5 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. In 2021q4, the revenue was 17.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.51%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 444 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.34%.
Ping An View:
The performance of 2021q4 was lower than expected, and many factors promoted the steady growth of the annual performance. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 444 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.34%, lower than the market expectation. On the one hand, the provision for impairment was large in the fourth quarter, with a total scale of asset impairment and credit impairment of 1.11 billion yuan, an increase of about 1.08 billion yuan year-on-year, which had a great negative impact on the current performance; On the other hand, the comprehensive gross profit margin of 2021q4 was 15.21%, with a year-on-year and month on month decrease of 3.42 and 9.13 percentage points respectively, which may be dragged down by the fan and parts business. In 2021, with the significant increase of impairment provision and the slight rebound of expense rate, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 16.65% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of investment income caused by the significant increase of gross profit margin of wind turbine business, the turnaround of loss of wind power service business and the increase of transfer scale of wind farm.
Offshore wind power business promotes the overall gross profit margin of wind turbines, and the profitability of wind turbine business may be under pressure in 2022. In 2021, the company’s wind turbine export scale was 10.68gw, a year-on-year decrease of 17.4%, and the gross profit margin of wind turbine business was 17.99%, a year-on-year increase of about 3.4 percentage points, which was in line with market expectations. In terms of spin off, the increase of gross profit margin of fan business in 2021 was mainly contributed by 6 / 8s models, and the gross profit margin of onshore 2S and 3 / 4S models decreased slightly year-on-year. Looking forward to 2022, as the company had no 6 / 8s orders in hand by the end of 2021, and the gross profit margin of the main model 3 / 4S fell sharply in the second half of 2021 due to the decline of sales price, it is estimated that the gross profit margin of fan business will be under pressure in 2022.
The order acquisition of fan is strengthened, and the new products of medium speed permanent magnet bear the future. By the end of 2021, the company’s orders for hand fans were about 16.9gw. It is estimated that the net new orders for wind turbines in 2021 were 13.16gw, of which the net new orders in 2021q4 exceeded 6Gw. The company’s efforts to obtain orders in 2021 showed a trend of strengthening quarter by quarter. In terms of overseas sales, the company’s overseas wind turbine manufacturing related revenue in 2021 was 4.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 95%, accounting for 12% of the overall wind turbine manufacturing revenue; By the end of 2021, the company’s overseas fan orders in hand were 2.28gw, a year-on-year increase of 14%. In 2021, the company launched new medium speed permanent magnet products and promoted them rapidly. By the end of 2021, medium speed permanent magnet products accounted for 29% of the orders in hand; In 2021, the sales volume of the company’s medium speed permanent magnet products was 108.5mw, corresponding to a unit capacity of 5.7mw and a single watt income of 1.94 yuan. Although the gross profit margin is low, there is room to improve the profitability with the scale and maturity of the supply chain in the future; We believe that the cost competitiveness of medium speed permanent magnet products relative to permanent magnet direct drive has been prospected, and the competitiveness of the company’s medium speed permanent magnet products is very important for the future development of the company’s fan business.
Wind power operation and after-sales service have developed steadily and rapidly, and sustainable growth can be expected. In terms of wind power operation, the scale of equity wind farms newly put into operation in 2021 is 140839mw, with a year-on-year increase of about 14%, and the transfer scale is 827.47mw, with a year-on-year increase of about 89%. As of 2021, the equity installed capacity of the company in operation is 6068mw, with a year-on-year increase of 581mw; Due to the good incoming wind, the revenue of wind power operation business in 2021 was 5.327 billion yuan, with a rapid year-on-year growth rate of 32.6%; By the end of 2021, the scale under construction is 2595mw, and the future wind power operation business can grow steadily. In terms of post service, the revenue in 2021 was 1.97 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 21%. By the end of 2021, the capacity of projects in transit of China’s foreign post service business was 23.1gw, with a year-on-year increase of about 64%.
Investment advice. Considering that the gross profit margin of the company’s onshore fans is lower than expected and the profitability of permanent magnet direct drive products is under pressure in the future, the company’s profit forecast is adjusted. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 will be RMB 3.234 and 3.963 billion (the original forecast value is RMB 5.380 and 6.703 billion), corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.77 and 0.94 and dynamic PE of 17.6 and 14.3 times. The wind power industry is booming. The company is the largest wind turbine enterprise in China and maintains the “recommended” rating of the company.
Risk warning. (1) China’s wind power market demand is related to macroeconomic, policy and the cost reduction ability of wind power itself. There may be a risk that China’s market demand is less than expected. (2) The company is actively expanding overseas markets. If the overseas epidemic control is less than expected, or the overseas trade protection problem intensifies, it may have an adverse impact on the company’s overseas business. (3) At present, the competition in the fan industry is fierce. If the company cannot improve the competitiveness of fan products through continuous technological progress, the profitability of fan business may be lower than expected.
