\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 383 Shenzhen Xinyichang Technology Co.Ltd(688383) )
Event: the company released the performance forecast, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 65-70 million yuan in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 68.66% - 81.63%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 64.72-69.72 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 70.19% - 83.34%.
The growth rate of performance is bright, and the leader of solid crystal machine accelerates its growth. The rapid growth of the company's performance is mainly due to the company's focus on the development main line of intelligent manufacturing equipment industry and continued to maintain its advantages in the industry. The income of traditional LED solid crystal machine, miniled equipment and semiconductor equipment increased significantly compared with the same period of last year.
Miniled has developed rapidly, and the probability of LED solid crystal of the company benefits first.
(1) miniled development enters the fast lane. Miniled has obvious advantages. Among them, the backlight display effect of miniled is equivalent to that of OLED, and the cost is low. It is expected to meet rapid development in VR, pad, laptop and other fields; Miniled direct display has obvious advantages in large-size ultra-high definition display and has a rapid penetration in business display and other fields. Samsung, LG, TCL, Xiaomi, Huawei and other enterprises have successively launched miniled products. The continuous launch of terminal products promotes the rapid development of miniled industry. According to the incomplete statistics of senior engineering led, the new investment in mini / microled and other fields exceeded 75 billion yuan in 2021.
(2) the development of miniled leads to the explosion of demand for solid crystal machine, and the company will fully benefit. The large volume of miniled has led to an exponential increase in the number of LED beads, and the demand for solid crystal machines has increased significantly. The company is the leader of LED solid crystal machine, with strong competitiveness, and will fully benefit from the rapid development of miniled.
The company's solid crystal technology has expanded to the semiconductor field and ushered in rapid growth.
(1) the semiconductor solid crystal machine market has grown steadily. In the post Moore era, the semiconductor industry began to pay attention to the sealing and testing link, and adopted advanced packaging methods such as flip chip, 3D packaging and system level packaging to improve the chip performance. In the future, the market scale of the sealing and testing industry will gradually grow. As an important part of semiconductor packaging, the demand for solid crystal will grow steadily. According to yole development, the semiconductor solid crystal machine market is expected to reach US $1.083 billion in 2024.
(2) the company's products have been recognized by the industry, and domestic substitution has been promoted rapidly. China's semiconductor solid crystal equipment is highly dependent on imports, and most Chinese manufacturers use the equipment of foreign manufacturers asmpt and besi. The company's vision based development of micro crystal, solid crystal control, etc. includes the accumulation of micro crystal and solid crystal electronics. The speed and performance of the company's semiconductor solid crystal machine products have been recognized by the industry and will usher in rapid development.
Profit forecast: the company occupies a leading advantage in the field of solid crystal machine and fully benefits from the rapid development of miniled. At the same time, based on the technology accumulated in LED crystal fixing machine, the company expands to semiconductor crystal fixing machine, led and semiconductor wire bonding machine, which is expected to create new growth points. We maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.197 billion, RMB 1.593 billion and RMB 2.005 billion respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 231 million, RMB 305 million and RMB 422 million respectively, with the corresponding PE of 41.72, 31.63 and 22.86 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating of the company.
Risk tip: the risk of declining prosperity of LED packaging industry; The risk that the development of new markets is less than expected; The risk of product upgrading falling short of expectations.
