\u3000\u30 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 06 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) )
Gehu faucet ended steadily in 21 years, with revenue and net profit increasing by 17% and 25% respectively. According to the annual report issued by the company, the operating revenue in 2021 was 1.463 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.97%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 228 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.88%, mainly driven by the company’s continuous improvement in the proportion of medium and high-end sanitary napkin products. In the past 20 years, due to the impact of the epidemic, the sales in each quarter of the whole year were relatively average, resulting in a relative slowdown in the growth of q2-q3 under the high base, and the revenue of Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 increased by 35% / 16% / 8% / 10% respectively in 21 years; As the sales expenses are mainly released in the off-season, there are quarterly fluctuations, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 increased by 47% / 50% / 1% / 4% respectively. Reviewing the performance of the past six years, the company achieved rapid growth as a whole from 2015 to 2021, with operating revenue and net profit attributable to parent CAGR of 13.3% and 22.4% respectively.
China has a broad market for absorbent sanitary products, with female / infant sanitary products accounting for the main share. In 2020, the scale of absorbent sanitary products industry reached 120 billion yuan, with a stable growth rate, of which female sanitary products accounted for 50% and the penetration rate was close to 100%. The market was gradually transformed into a stock market. It is expected that the increase of unit price in the next five years will still be the main driving force for the growth of the industry; Baby hygiene products account for 40%, and the industry penetration rate in 18 years is about 64%. Compared with more than 90% penetration rate in developed countries, there is room for further improvement; Adult incontinence products have a small base and fast growth, accounting for only 10% of the total market. According to Nielsen data, in the ranking of national sales share in 21 years, the company’s sanitary napkin products ranked third in the country, first in Chongqing and second in Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou and Shaanxi.
Significant results have been achieved in upgrading to medium and high-end products, Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) collaborative development ideas are clear, and equity incentive shows growth confidence. On the product side, the proportion of the company’s sanitary napkin revenue has increased to 81% in the past 21 years, and the proportion of medium and high-end “free point” brand has exceeded 95%. In the past 21 years, the revenue of sanitary napkin category has reached 1.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25%. From 18 to 21, the CAGR reached 27.3%, which is higher than the overall. In the follow-up, the company is optimistic about the continuous R & D investment and marketing investment of the company, and the core brand “free point” has continuously enriched the category & enhanced the. The channel side company adheres to the strategy of “intensive cultivation of Sichuan Chongqing market, orderly expansion of China and simultaneous development of e-commerce construction”, and Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) cooperates and advances simultaneously: 1) the e-commerce channel has achieved a high growth of 37% in 21 years, accounting for 14%. In December of 21, the company released the equity incentive plan, and the performance evaluation shows that the year-on-year growth rate of e-commerce business in 22 / 23 / 24 years is 61% / 45% / 41% respectively, and the online growth is expected to accelerate; 2) Pay equal attention to offline channel distribution + Ka, accounting for 60% in Southwest China. At the same time, the company has accelerated its national expansion. At present, it has entered Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Lianghu, Guangdong and other regions, accounting for 12%. In the past 21 years, the revenue growth rate of the company in the core market Sichuan Chongqing / Yunnan Guizhou Shaanxi was 15.7% / 24.9% respectively, and the growth rate of Lianghu and other regions was 16.4%. In the future, the company will continue to cultivate the core markets in Sichuan Chongqing and Yunnan Guizhou Shaanxi, and gradually expand to the periphery, Create a second growth curve.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company started in Sichuan and Chongqing. Over the years, by focusing on medium and high-end products and refined channel management, the company has achieved a leading share of the regional market. The improvement of product power of free point promotes the expansion of national and online channels. At the same time, channel extension further strengthens the company’s product power and forms a double positive cycle of products and channels. Regardless of the impact of equity incentive expenses, the incentive target corresponds to the income and profit CAGR of 22% and 18% respectively from 2022 to 2024, demonstrating development confidence. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 270 million yuan, 323 million yuan and 382 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, 19.8% and 18.3% respectively. At present, the stock price corresponds to 20.8x PE in 2022, and the “buy” rating is given for the first time
Risk factors: the risk of intensified market competition and sharp rise in the price of raw materials.
