\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 898 China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) )
Event: the company released the performance report for 2021 and achieved an operating revenue of 231127 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 13.282 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 124.8%. The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 13.076 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 127.50%, a new high since the listing. The basic earnings per share was 1.00 yuan, and the operating net cash flow was 48.106 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 112.6%. Benefiting from the sharp rise in the overall coal price last year, the company’s performance was in line with expectations.
Revenue growth benefited from the improvement of coal sales unit price, and self-produced coal became the source of profit increase. In 2021, the coal sector achieved an operating revenue of 192409 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 75.4%, accounting for 83.2% of the total revenue, and achieved 29.117 million tons of coal sales, including 110.73 million tons of self-produced coal, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.7% and – 0.3% respectively. The sharp increase in revenue was mainly due to the sharp increase in the sales unit price of the company’s buyout of trade coal and self-produced commercial coal, with the growth rate of 75.6% and 45.6% respectively, and the unit price reached 769 yuan / ton and 645 yuan / ton respectively. In terms of cost, the cost of commercial coal produced by the company was 325.19 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 45.95 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, mainly due to the increase of material and labor costs. In terms of gross profit, the gross profit per ton of coal will be 319.8 yuan / ton in 2021, with a gross profit margin of 49.6%, an increase of 12.5 percentage points year-on-year. The substantial increase in the sales unit price of self-produced commercial coal is the main reason for the sharp increase in the company’s net profit.
Affected by the rise of coal price, the coal chemical industry sector increased revenue without increasing profit, and the landing contribution of new methanol projects increased. In the coal chemical industry sector, in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 21.305 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%, a total revenue of 9.2%, an operating cost of 19.021 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.3%, a gross profit of 2.649 billion yuan, a decrease of 28 million yuan, a decrease of 1.0%, and a gross profit margin of 12.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5 percentage points. The sales volume of main coal chemical products was 4.921 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 12%. The chemical sector is mainly olefins and methanol. Due to the rise in the prices of upstream raw coal and fuel coal, the gross profit margin decreased to a certain extent, resulting in the situation of increasing income without increasing profit in the chemical sector. In addition, in 2021, the company’s 6 Sichuan Jinshi Technology Co.Ltd(002951) million T / a methanol technical transformation project was put into operation, which contributed to the increment, and the methanol output increased by 82% year-on-year.
Coal and chemical sectors have capacity reserves, highlighting the company’s growth potential. As the leader of national coal production enterprises, the company’s capacity scale continues to grow. In 2021, the company’s east open pit coal mine, Wangjialing coal mine, dahaize coal mine (15 million nuclear increased to 20 million tons) and Xinjiang 106 coal mine were included in the list of national coal mines with increased production and guaranteed supply, with a total nuclear increased capacity of 12.1 million tons / year. In 2022, dahaize coal mine is expected to contribute to the growth of output. In addition, the company also has Weizigou in Xinjiang, Yilan in Heilongjiang Shanxi Hejin Libi coal mine has a total reserve of 8.8 million tons of projects under construction. In the chemical sector, there are plans for the proposed 450000 T / a polypropylene and 300000 t / a high-density polyethylene projects of Yulin Energy and chemical (olefin phase II), which will become an important growth focus of the chemical sector in the future, and the reserve capacity of the coal and chemical sector. In the future, it is expected to continue to promote the landing of new production capacity and be optimistic about the growth space of the company.
Cash dividend: according to the announcement, the company plans to pay a cash dividend of 3.985 billion yuan, accounting for 30% of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, corresponding to a dividend of 0.301 yuan per share (including tax). Calculated by the closing share price of 7.64 yuan on March 25, 2022, the dividend rate is 3.9%.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 15.20/16.83/16.88 billion respectively, and the current share price corresponds to PE of 6.7/6.0/6.0 times. The first coverage gives the company a buy rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic growth is less than expected; Coal prices fell sharply; The progress of projects under construction is slow.
