\u3000\u30 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) 19 Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300019) )
Key investment points
With high income growth, the market share is expected to continue to increase.
During the reporting period, the company's revenue from construction glue, industrial glue and silane coupling agent was 1.771 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 63.04%), 502 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 66.47%) and 269 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 116.76%). The production and sales of sealant and silane coupling agent were 135900 tons and 132900 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 36.86% and 36.09% respectively. Under the influence of the adverse factors brought by the sharp rise of upstream raw materials, the company has effectively alleviated the impact of the rise of raw material prices on its performance by actively and comprehensively improving its product market share. In addition, the company disclosed its production plan for 2022. The company plans to achieve an annual output of 160000 tons of silicone sealant, with a year-on-year increase of 30% in revenue, including a year-on-year increase of 30% in sales of construction adhesive and 50% in industrial adhesive. The company will also continue to promote the 100000 t / a high-end sealant intelligent manufacturing of the raised investment project, and build the remaining 60000 T / a high-end silicone sealant production line; Accelerate the construction of silicon Guangdong Baolihua New Energy Stock Co.Ltd(000690) project; Promote the full production of Meishan Tuoli 20000 t / a functional polymer material base and R & D center project. We continue to be optimistic about the development of the company and believe that with the new production capacity of the company put into operation, the profitability and market share of the company are expected to be further improved.
The price of raw materials fell, and the cost pressure of the company was gradually relieved.
According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, since October 2021, the price of 107 glue has fallen from the highest point of 61200 yuan / ton. As of March this year, the average price of 107 glue in East China was 36300 yuan / ton, down 40.7% from the high point in October 21. The company's revenue in 2021q4 increased by 29.7% month on month, 50.5% year-on-year, gross profit margin of 23.12%, 4.47pct month on month, and net profit margin of 12.14%, 2.00pct month on month. We believe that with the easing of power rationing and the significant release of new production capacity of upstream organic silicon enterprises such as Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Shandong Dongyue Organosilicon Materials Co.Ltd(300821) , Yunnan Energy Investment Co.Ltd(002053) and so on, the price of 107 glue is expected to continue to fall, the cost pressure of the company's products will be gradually relieved, and the profitability of the company is expected to rise to the bottom.
The layout of silicon carbon negative electrode meets the new growth, and the company has great room for development in the future.
On November 10, 2021, the company announced that it planned to invest 560 million yuan to build a 10000 t / a silicon carbon cathode material for lithium battery and a 40000 t / a special adhesive project. The project is constructed in two phases. The first phase is completed and put into operation within 30 months, and the second phase is completed and put into operation within 12 months after the first phase is put into operation. The energy density of silicon carbon negative electrode material is significantly higher than that of traditional graphite negative electrode material, which has great application potential. The company began to independently develop silicon carbon cathode materials in 2016, and built a 50 t / a pilot production line in 2019. At present, the products have passed the sample delivery and testing of downstream customers to realize small batch supply. At the same time, the company signed a cooperation agreement with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in August 2021 to jointly develop protective sealing materials for batteries and their packages, including but not limited to heat conduction, sealing, shock absorption, insulation and other new materials to improve battery performance. At present, the market is worried about the downturn of the real estate industry chain, but we believe that with the increase of real estate concentration, the construction glue market will focus on the head company, and the company will continue to increase its market share with good brand awareness and strong market competitiveness. In addition, with the gradual launch of the company's new industrial rubber production capacity, the company will fully benefit from the rapid increase in the demand for photovoltaic and lithium batteries. The company still has large development space and is expected to maintain rapid growth in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is a leading enterprise in the front line of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) glue. With the increase of real estate concentration, the construction glue market will focus on the head, and the company has great room to improve its market share. In addition, the import substitution market of industrial rubber is large, and the development space of the company is broad. We expect that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.96/1.31/1.73 yuan respectively, and the current price corresponding to PE will be 18.64/13.62/10.33 times respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The impact of macroeconomic regulation and control; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The expansion of new fields did not meet expectations; Accounts receivable risk, etc.
