\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 585 Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) )
The company released its 2021 annual report. The company achieved a revenue of 167.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 33.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%; EPS6. 28 yuan / share; The annual net operating cash flow was 33.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.65%. In the fourth quarter, the company’s revenue was 46.24 billion yuan, down 11.5% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.88 billion yuan, an increase of 4.5%, and the net operating cash flow in the fourth quarter was 12.45 billion yuan, an increase of 10.3%. The company’s revenue and profit declined slightly, and Q4’s net cash flow performed better.
Key points supporting rating
Decrease in cement sales and increase in price: in 2021, the company’s self product sales of cement clinker were 304 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%. We estimate that the annual average sales price of cement products of the company is 367.3 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.7% at the same time, and the price has increased significantly. With the price rising, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin in 2021 was 29.6%, up 0.47pct year-on-year, including 44.3% of self-produced cement and 37.1% of clinker.
The transfer of cost side is good, and the gross profit per ton has increased steadily and slightly: we calculate that the cost per ton of cement and clinker produced by the company is 205.7 yuan / ton, an increase of 35 yuan at the same time; The gross profit per ton was 161.6 yuan, a steady, medium and slight increase year-on-year. According to the annual report data, the company responded relatively well to the soaring coal price under the dual control environment of energy consumption in 2021. The cost per ton of coal increased by about 30 yuan / ton, which was lower than the fluctuation range of coal price.
With steady and sufficient cash flow and high dividend rate, the long-term value of the company is still worth looking forward to: the company’s annual net operating cash flow was 33.9 billion yuan, a slight decrease compared with the same period. In 2021, the company’s cash dividend per share was 2.38 yuan, with a total dividend of 12.61 billion yuan, accounting for 37.9% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 and a dividend rate of 5.91%. The company still maintains a steady and abundant cash flow, high dividends and high dividends. It is still a value stock and leading stock. The company is gradually accelerating foreign investment, expanding the industrial chain and actively distributing new energy and new materials. At present, the valuation of the company is low, and it is worth looking forward to in the short, medium and long term.
Valuation
Considering the current high cost and high price of cement, we expect the company’s revenue to be 183.49 billion yuan, 191.57 billion yuan and 202.17 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 35.81 billion yuan, 36.46 billion yuan and 37.1 billion yuan respectively; EPS is 6.76, 6.88 and 7.00 yuan respectively. Maintain the company’s buy rating.
Main risks of rating
Lower than expected weather disturbance and construction cost of real estate
