\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 185 Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, it achieved an operating revenue of 4.3 billion yuan, an increase of 17175% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.91 billion yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.8 billion yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year; The net cash flow from operating activities was 2.05 billion yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year.
Vid-19 helps the company to achieve rapid internationalization. 1) Quarterly, the company's Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 single quarter revenue was 4.7/16/10/1.21 billion yuan (+ 11483% / / + 62200% / + 6217%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company in the single quarter was - 0.1/950/4/580 million yuan (+ 39% / + 1303% / + 468% / + 278%). The company's performance is in continuous growth except that the company's covid-19 vaccine production capacity was affected by the problems of upstream supply chain manufacturers in Q3. In February 2022, the company's covid-19 vaccine was approved for sequential vaccination in the Chinese market. According to the public data of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, it is estimated that there are about 500 million doses in China's booster market. It is expected that the company is expected to seize the market share of booster in the Chinese market in 2022. At the same time, the company's vaccine has been approved for export in many overseas countries, which is expected to continue to contribute to the performance increment. 2) In terms of profitability, in 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 70% (+ 27.5pp), the sales expense ratio was 2.46%, the management expense ratio was 5.2%, the R & D expense ratio was 20.4%, the financial expense ratio was - 0.6%, and the net sales profit margin was 44.4%. Due to the significant increase in operating revenue, the company's expense ratio decreased to a great extent.
The meningitis vaccine pipeline of the company was officially formed and is expected to become a new growth point of performance. The company's mcv2 vaccine was approved and issued in 2021m9, and MCV4 vaccine was approved on December 29, 2021. Compared with other manufacturers, mcv2 vaccine of the company has good safety and immunogenicity. As the first four price product approved in China, MCV4 vaccine is not expected to have similar products on the market in the next few years, and the company has obvious first mover advantage. With Pfizer's sales team + independent sales model, the company's MCV4 vaccine is expected to achieve rapid and large-scale production in 2022 as the first complete sales year. At the same time, the company continues to increase its R & D investment by virtue of the large cash flow obtained by covid-19 vaccine. The company focuses on the distribution of heavy varieties in the pipeline under research. For example, the 13 valent pneumonia vaccine is in clinical phase III and the PBPV vaccine is in phase IA, which are progressing smoothly. It is expected to enrich the company's product categories in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. As an innovative R & D enterprise in the field of vaccines in China, covid-19 vaccine is gradually opening up the market outside China. In the future, the company is expected to continue to contribute to performance increment by virtue of rich product matrix. In combination with the equity incentive guidelines, we predict that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 11.75 yuan, 19.64 yuan and 23.29 yuan respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: there is a lower than expected risk in the marketing of new products; Risk of R & D lower than expected or R & D failure; Covid-19 vaccine has the risk of significant price reduction in the future.
