\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 87 Zhejiang Tiantie Industry Co.Ltd(300587) )
The company is a leading enterprise in the field of vibration and noise reduction of rail transit in China. The company is committed to solving the noise caused by rail transit from the source of vibration. Relying on its many years of business experience, while maintaining the market share of existing products, the company continues to develop new products and improve the competitiveness of its main business. Under the background of the rapid development of China's "urban Agglomeration", with the acceleration of urban and intercity construction, the rail transit vibration and noise reduction industry is expected to show a high boom for a long time. As a leading enterprise, The high growth performance of the main rail transit vibration and noise reduction sector is expected to continue to be realized. In addition, the company has implemented internal and external development, adopted diversified strategy, and actively distributed building vibration reduction and isolation and lithium chemicals, which has better growth potential.
The rail transit vibration and noise reduction industry has been booming for a long time. On the one hand, the industry benefited from the increased demand for rail transit construction. During the "14th five year plan" period, only three regions planned to build 10000 kilometers of intercity. With the continuous development of "Urban Agglomeration", the high prosperity sustainability can be expected; On the other hand, benefiting from the expectation of improving the penetration rate of the industry, the requirements for environmental protection and noise reduction have been continuously improved. The National People's Congress deliberated and revised the legislation to include the vibration and noise reduction of rail transit into the scope of legislation. Therefore, it is expected to further improve the penetration rate of the industry.
The market share of the company continues to increase. Relying on its strong ability to obtain orders for many years, the company has continuously carried out import substitution, and its performance continues to exceed expectations. At present, the company's comprehensive market share is more than 10%, of which the medium and high vibration damping have been relatively high. The special vibration damping field belongs to the new market, and the market share is still relatively low, but the application field is the same. Under the background of China's strong support for import substitution, there may be great room for improvement in the future.
After the implementation of the legislation, the building vibration reduction and isolation industry is in the explosive period of energy storage, and the industry has nearly 20 times the space to be expected. The regulations on the administration of earthquake resistance of construction projects has been officially implemented. The space of the building earthquake reduction and isolation industry is nearly 20 times longer. At present, the space of the industry is less than 2 billion, 38 billion in the short and medium term, and more than 100 billion in the long-term "carbon neutralization" background. The company issued 7200 sets of convertible bonds last year. At present, the construction is smooth. As a few listed companies with rapid expansion strength, the company is expected to enjoy the industry expansion bonus.
The lithium chemical sector has steady profitability, high prosperity and good cash flow. New production capacity has been started and has great growth potential in the future. Changjiyi has been recognized as a high-tech enterprise since 2016. It is the first drafting unit of the national industrial standard chloron-butane for industrial use (Hg / t53812018). At present, it has become a midstream lithium compound production enterprise integrating the R & D, production and sales of lithium compounds such as butyl lithium, battery grade lithium chloride, industrial grade lithium chloride and chemical products such as chloroalkanes. It focuses on the new energy + new materials + new medicine industry, The downstream demand is strong, and the main customers are pharmaceutical intermediates, synthetic rubber catalysts, synthetic metal lithium, electronic chemicals, new energy batteries and other fields. The expansion of changjili to 50000 tons of lithium salt and 3800 tons of alkyl lithium project has been started, with great development potential. It is expected to become the leader in the subdivision of alkyl lithium in China, contributing to the thickening of performance and the improvement of valuation.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the main driver of the company's performance is still the vibration and noise reduction of rail transit, "Urban Agglomeration" is developing rapidly, and the construction of intercity and municipal rail transit is expected to accelerate, or show high prosperity for a long time. Therefore, in combination with the planning and construction rhythm of intercity, city and subway, as well as the expectation of increasing the industry penetration under the background of environmental protection and noise reduction, we believe that the industry CAGR will be 27% by 2025. While the company actively expands its categories, the market share is expected to accelerate, and the performance CAGR is expected to be about 50% in the next three years. It is estimated that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.816 billion yuan, 2.722 billion yuan and 3.874 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 301 million yuan, 449 million yuan and 681 million yuan respectively, corresponding to the current share price PE of 37.43x, 25.14x and 16.56x respectively. "Buy" rating is given for the first time.
Risk tip: infrastructure investment has fallen sharply, and the development of "Urban Agglomeration" is less than expected.
