\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 128 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) )
Event: Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) announced the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, the growth rate of revenue was 19%, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 23%. The performance was excellent. We comment
As follows:
1. The revenue growth rate of 2022q1 continues the trend of recovery since the first quarter of last year and has returned to the state of early 2019 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) the growth rate of revenue in the first quarter of this year increased by 2.73pc to 19% compared with the growth rate of the whole year in 2021. The main driving factors are: ① the expansion of scale is accelerated. In the first two months of this year, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) new credit was 9.5 billion yuan, reaching 30% of the new scale of last year. The faster asset growth supported the revenue.
Considering that Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) made two transfers of credit assets in late March, with a total amount of about 3 billion yuan, we expect the credit growth rate at the end of March to be lower than that at the end of February, which to some extent led to the decline of revenue growth in March compared with the previous two months, but this is only a routine action of Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) accelerating asset circulation. Its credit supply is still in a state of booming supply and demand, and the total assets of the whole year are expected to maintain a high growth trend.
② it is expected that the net interest margin in 2022q1 will remain stable month on month, while the net interest margin in the first quarter of last year was at a low point. Under the low base effect, the net interest margin still widened significantly year-on-year, supporting the revenue.
\u3000\u30002. Asset quality remained stable. By the end of the first quarter of 2022, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) NPL ratio was 0.81%, unchanged from the end of last year and the end of February this year. Under the environment of low credit risk pressure, we expect that Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) 3 month will increase the provision to thicken the safety cushion, and the provision coverage is expected to increase compared with the end of last year.
\u3000\u30003. Net profit maintained high growth. In the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) parent net profit increased by 1.87pc to 23% compared with that of last year, basically getting rid of the impact of the epidemic and returning to the state of 2019.
Looking forward to the whole year of 2022, we expect that the rapid asset launch speed and the year-on-year widening of the superimposed net interest margin will jointly support the rapid growth of Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) revenue, and the excellent asset quality will drive the annual profit growth and maintain the excellent level of the industry.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company’s revenue growth rate to be 17.22% and net profit growth rate to be 25.84% in 2022. We give the investment rating of Buy-A, and the six-month target price is 8.99 yuan, equivalent to 1.19xpb in 2021.
Risk tip: the intensified competition of small and micro businesses leads to the narrowing of interest margin; Significant deterioration of asset quality;
