\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 484 Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) )
Event overview
The company disclosed the forecast of the first quarterly report of 2022. The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 of 22 years to be 110 million yuan - 120 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35% - 45%.
Capacitor price rise is good for the company's cost transmission
According to mantianxin information, Nichicon, a large Japanese aluminum electrolytic capacitor manufacturer, will increase the price of all products by 10% from April 15. Taiwan manufacturers take a wait-and-see attitude and discuss price increases with downstream customers. The price rise of the industry is mainly due to the rising price of raw materials in the upstream and the continuous strong demand in the downstream. Among them, aluminum price and electricity price have a great impact on the cost of aluminized capacitor products. Under the background that the Japanese and Taiwan departments are expected to raise prices in an all-round way, Chinese manufacturers, especially the leading manufacturers led by the company, are expected to start raising prices in the future, transmitting the pressure of rising costs.
New energy drives strong downstream demand and is optimistic about the development of the company for a long time
The capacitor is the core foundation of the inverter. In the inverters of photovoltaic and new energy vehicles, DC-link bus capacitor needs to be widely used on the DC side, followed by filter capacitor in AC measurement. Among them, DC bus capacitor is the most used, accounting for about 70% - 80% of the total capacitance. In photovoltaic and other fields, bus capacitance requires a large number of aluminized capacitors. According to the prediction of the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena), by 2050, the global photovoltaic penetration rate will reach 25%, equivalent to 10 times of the current rate. According to solarpower Europe's prediction, the new installed capacity of the global photovoltaic market will reach 346.7gw in 2025, with an annual compound growth rate of 15% from 2021 to 2025. China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that China's photovoltaic industry will increase by 70-90gw annually during the 14th five year plan. According to the data forecast of the national renewable energy center, the annual new installed capacity of China's photovoltaic market will increase significantly in the medium and long term. At that time, the demand for aluminum electrolytic capacitors will be further increased. At the same time, in the field of new energy vehicles, electronic applications such as automatic driving and intelligent cockpit are gradually increasing, and its demand for aluminum electrolytic capacitors will be further improved.
The company's product layout is perfect and fully benefits from the large volume of downstream market
The company began to develop aluminum electrolytic capacitors in 1970. It has the core production technology of aluminum electrolytic capacitors, leading product quality, cost advantage and high-quality customer resources, and seizes high-quality downstream tracks such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic.
Since 2011, the company has planned the thin film capacitor business and established xinjianghai power; In 2016, it acquired 100% equity of YOUPU electronics; In 2018, Haimei Electronics was established in cooperation with Jimei. Relying on Jimei and Jianghai brands and channels, we have actively explored the market of vehicle mounted thin film capacitors, which have been tested and identified by many users and sold in batches. In 2021, the revenue of thin film capacitors was 224 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.33%. The company has vigorously promoted the industrialization of self-developed supercapacitors by means of technology transfer, equity acquisition of upstream enterprises and fixed increase fund-raising. EDLC and LIC are arranged in two lines. At present, the product series is complete and has certain technical advantages. It has been applied in batch in the fields of wind power, rail transit, new energy passenger cars, industry and so on. In 2021, super capacitor brought 240 million yuan of operating revenue to the company, and wind power is the largest source of revenue among the company's super capacitor products.
Investment advice
Maintain the company's profit forecast according to the company's production capacity and new energy demand. We expect the company's operating revenue to be RMB 4.818 billion, RMB 5.915 billion and RMB 7.045 billion from 2022 to 2024. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 595 million, RMB 781 million and RMB 1.046 billion from 2022 to 2024, and the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.5 billion 72 yuan, 0.94 yuan and 1.26 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 20.44 yuan on March 28, 2022, with PE of 29x, 22x and 16x respectively. Maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The rise of aluminum price drives the rise of electrode foil price; The price rise of power coal leads to the rise of electricity price, and finally drives the price rise of electrode foil; The rise in oil prices drives the rise in the prices of other raw materials; Photovoltaic demand is less than expected; The demand for electric vehicles is lower than expected
