Market review:
In March 2022, CSI 300 rose or fell by – 7.21%, and gem rose or fell by – 5.96%. The automobile industry rose or fell by – 8.77%, Wande power battery index (884963. WI) rose or fell by – 9.40%, surpassing 6 of the 30 first tier industries of CITIC, and the national securities new energy vehicle index (399417. SZ) rose or fell by – 9.32%. Among the power battery related sectors, lithium negative electrode ranked first with a monthly increase or decrease of – 7.13%, and nickel ore index ranked last with a monthly increase or decrease of – 11.08%.
Industry tracking:
Power battery:
In February 2022, the output of power batteries increased significantly, and lithium iron phosphate increased significantly. In terms of production, the output of ternary battery was 1163910 MWh, a year-on-year increase of + 127.23%, and the output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 2005220 MWh, a year-on-year increase of + 364.10%.
The proportion of lithium iron phosphate loading increased. The loading volume of ternary batteries was 5845.3 MW h, a year-on-year increase of + 75.63%, and the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 7780.1 MW h, a year-on-year increase of + 247.28%. In terms of market share of loading volume, ternary batteries accounted for + 42.90%, a year-on-year increase of -16.87pct, and lithium iron phosphate accounted for + 57.10%, a year-on-year increase of + 16.87pct. In terms of enterprises, the share of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery enterprises remained relatively stable, the share of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) took the lead, and the share of Byd Company Limited(002594) increased significantly year-on-year.
New energy vehicles:
The production and sales of new energy vehicles hit a new record in the month, and the year-on-year growth rate of production and sales increased compared with the previous two months. The monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles were 368000 and 334000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 197.93% and + 204.65% respectively.
In terms of models, the monthly production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles and new energy commercial vehicles increased year-on-year, but the year-on-year growth of production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles was significantly ahead of that of new energy commercial vehicles. Among them, the production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 436700 and 419100 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 134.97% and + 143.98% respectively.
In terms of power sources, the monthly production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles have increased significantly month on month and year-on-year. The sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles have performed relatively well in recent months and their share has continued to increase.
In the past month, lithium hydroxide and nickel sulfate in battery materials increased significantly, but the growth rate slowed down. The price of lithium carbonate is 468000 yuan / ton, lithium hydroxide 419500 yuan / ton, cobalt sulfate 111500 yuan / ton, lithium iron phosphate cathode 160000 yuan / ton, and middle end artificial graphite 51500 yuan / ton.
Investment suggestions:
Recently, the price growth of upstream lithium resources has slowed down, the price of nickel has fallen, and the share prices of relevant companies have been corrected. However, at present, new energy vehicles continue to sell well. Before the development of battery recycling and other lithium extraction technologies, it is expected that the tight supply of upstream resources will not be alleviated. The increase of raw material costs will promote the price rise of vehicles and reduce the profits of midstream enterprises. Suggestions on the upstream of power battery industry chain: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ; Suggestions on the middle reaches of the power battery industry chain: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , beiteri; It is suggested to pay attention to the downstream of power battery industry chain: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Byd Company Limited(002594) .
Risk tips: policy changes; Changes in lithium technology route; The sales volume of new energy vehicles was lower than expected.
