Recent views of photovoltaic industry
China's household market grew rapidly in 2021, with a global installed capacity of 160170gw, an increase of about 25% at the same time: according to the statistics of the national energy administration, China's photovoltaic installed capacity in 2021 was 54.88gw, a year-on-year increase of + 13.86%, of which the newly installed capacity of household photovoltaic was 21.5gw, a year-on-year increase of + 114%, exceeding market expectations. In 2021, the domestic component export was 100.6gw, of which the domestic component export in December 2021 was 9.41gw, with a ring increase of 14% and a same increase of 45%. The overseas off-season still increased month on month. Based on the calculation of 22.8gw of domestic battery exports in 2021, we predict that the DC side installed capacity in the overseas market will be 120gw + in 2021, and the global median installed capacity of photovoltaic in 2021 will be 160170gw, an increase of about 25% at the same time. The price game is serious in 2021, but the final installed capacity is still the upper limit of silicon material supply, and the price is the reflection of the results of supply and demand. It is expected that the "silicon material output will determine the annual demand" in 22 years.
In Q1 2022, China's distributed demand and overseas demand supermarket market are expected. The demand certainty in 2022 is strong: according to the national energy administration, China's 1-2 moonlight installed capacity is 10.86gw, an increase of 234.15% at the same time, the household is expected to be 6Gw +, and the installed capacity continues to exceed the market expectation; Overseas emerging markets are in full bloom. Q1 India, Japan, Poland and other markets are scrambling for equipment goods, and Q2 Europe, America and other regions are increasing in succession. We expect the export data of components and inverters to continue to improve; Based on the supply capacity and demand exceeding expectations, we raised the global photovoltaic installed capacity in 22 years to 240250gw, an increase of 50% +, of which China's demand is 85-95gw, an increase of about 70%, distributed accounting for 55% +, and overseas demand is 150160gw, an increase of 30% +.
In 2022, the output of q1-2 module is bright, the output margin is upward, and the price of the industrial chain is slightly adjusted and increased: the rapid development of distributed photovoltaic in China + rush loading in overseas Q1 and India, the shipment of most module manufacturers in 22q1 is flat, 21q4, the shipment of the top four module manufacturers in Q1 is about 35gw, and the total shipment of Q2 is planned to increase by 15-20% (mainly due to the high level of distributed shipment). The output margin is upward, breaking the early worries of the market. From February to March, the price of silicon components in the main industrial chain was expected to rise slightly, which confirmed that the demand was very good. In March, the price of glass increased by 1-2 yuan / Ping due to natural gas and the price of adhesive film increased slightly due to particles. We expect that the price of components in the short term will rise slightly. China's demand in the first half of the year is still distributed, with strong overseas price acceptance and strong demand, starting from quarter to quarter. On the policy side, the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan was released, which is conducive to the development of energy storage; 455gw of the second batch of large scenic bases have been put into operation, of which the total installed capacity is planned to be about 200GW during the 14th Five Year Plan period and about 255gw during the 15th Five Year Plan period. Overseas, the European Photovoltaic Association raised the cumulative installed capacity of EU photovoltaic in 2030 to 1tw, and the average annual new installed capacity will reach 92.8gw, which is expected to increase by 65%.
In the first quarter, the industrial chain production scheduling was bright, the profitability was enhanced, and the performance may be improved month on month: the component production scheduling Q1 was significantly improved, while the single watt profit was improved, and the Q1 performance may exceed expectations; Inverter has benefited from export substitution, solving supply bottlenecks, and the outbreak of distributed and energy storage market, with rapid growth in 22 years; Silicon material leading enterprises increased production capacity in large quantities, prices remained high, and Q1 profits exceeded market expectations; At the same time, the profits of silicon chips and battery chips are also gradually repaired. Key recommendations: component links ( 601 Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) daquanco., Ltd.) and the stable adhesive film and glass links of the faucet ( Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , focusing on Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Xinyi light energy), etc.
Risk tip: competition intensifies and the policy is less than expected.
