Data this week: new energy vehicle enterprises have raised prices one after another, and the price of raw materials has risen
New energy vehicle enterprises have raised prices one after another, and the cost pressure is gradually transmitted to the terminal. This week, car companies such as Xiaopeng, ideal, SAIC GM Wuling and Zero run announced a new round of price increases, and the cost pressure was gradually transmitted to the terminal.
Raw material prices rose slightly this week. The average prices of cold-rolled sheet, hot-rolled coil, aluminum, copper, natural rubber and polypropylene, the main raw materials of automobile and supply chain, were - 0.1%, + 1.3%, + 2.1%, + 0.8%, + 0.9% and + 0% respectively this week; On a year-on-year basis, + 5.0%, + 2.6%, + 33.1%, + 11.3%, - 5.6%, - 11.9% respectively. The average price in the past month was + 1.3%, + 3.0%, + 0.4%, + 2.0%, - 5.2%, + 0% month on month respectively.
This week's view: continue to be optimistic about independent rise + electric intelligence + motorcycle
Great changes have taken place in automotive intelligent and electric vehicles, reshaping the industrial order and looking forward to the golden decade of the automotive industry. Core portfolio of this month [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) , Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) ]].
Passenger cars: the terminal demand fluctuates due to the impact of the epidemic, and the price rise of raw materials is gradually transmitted to the terminal. Affected by the epidemic, the average daily wholesale of passenger cars in the first three weeks of March was - 17.7% year-on-year. The demand differentiation is obvious: 1) independent joint venture, the average daily rate of independent in the first three weeks of March is + 7.5% year-on-year, and the average daily rate of joint venture is - 23.6% year-on-year; 2) New energy fuel. The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached a new high in February, reaching 21.8%, with a month on month ratio of + 2.4pct. Considering that the impact of the epidemic is mainly concentrated in first tier cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, accounting for more than 10% of the total amount of new energy, we expect that after the epidemic is alleviated, the sales of passenger cars is expected to recover and the demand for new energy will rebound stronger. We are firmly optimistic about the independent rise and realize the improvement of brand and market share through reform. We recommend [Geely Automobile h, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ] and the beneficiary [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H].
Parts: Electric Intelligence reshapes the industrial order, rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis, and firmly look at many parts. Intellectualization will be the core theme of this year. Intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit will accelerate together, and we are optimistic about the accelerated penetration of acoustics + chassis by wire + domain controller; Electrification accelerates the development of lightweight, Tesla leads the integrated die casting, and improves the industry concentration while increasing the industry expansion. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension:
Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, the iteration speed of the new force model is faster, the verification cycle of the supply chain is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened, driving the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become steeper. Recommend Tesla + new forces industrial chain: [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
2. Product dimension:
The transformation of smart electric will reshape the brand power and product power. All vehicle enterprises continue to increase the configuration of smart electric, so as to improve the market share and improve the brand:
1) intelligent increment: intelligent driving - [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], the beneficiary [Nextel]; Smart cockpit: Acoustics - [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], smart seat - [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], ceiling glass - [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], lights - [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively);
2) electrification increment: three power [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ]; New energy heat management [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], beneficiary [ Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ]; Lightweight [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Motorcycles: according to the data of China Automobile Association, China's medium and large displacement motorcycles sold 23000 in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 137.3% and a month on month increase of - 6.0%. From January to February, 48000 vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 65.9%. Medium and large displacement motorcycles represent the direction of consumption upgrading, with huge market potential. The share will be concentrated in independent and joint venture brands with outstanding brand strength, leading powertrain technology and perfect channel layout. Recommend [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) ].
This week's market: overall stronger than the market, led by the passenger car sector
This week, the A-share auto sector fell by 1.1% (weighted average of current market value, the same below), ranking 16th in shenwanzi industry, with a stronger performance than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (down 1.7%). Among the sub sectors, auto services, other transportation equipment and passenger cars increased by 4.2%, 4.1% and 1.5% respectively; Trucks, spare parts and passenger cars fell by 0.9%, 1.2% and 2.0% respectively.
Risk tips
Shortage of chip supply in automobile industry; The fluctuation of raw material cost exceeds the expectation; The terminal demand of the automobile industry is lower than expected; Automobile export sales were lower than expected.
