This week’s view:
Planting industry chain: this week, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas and the Ministry of finance made clear the key work of grain production and a package of support policies in 2022, requiring all localities to go all out to ensure a bumper harvest of summer grain and wheat, do everything possible to expand the planting of soybean oil, pay close attention to the stable price and supply of agricultural materials, unremittingly pay attention to agricultural disaster prevention, mitigation and relief, stabilize the basic situation of agriculture, and provide strong support for promoting the stable and healthy development of economy and society. In 2022, the central government will comprehensively implement a package of policies and measures such as subsidies, incentives and finance. First, steadily implement the subsidy for cultivated land fertility protection; Second, support the construction of 100 million mu of high standard farmland, expand the area of conservation tillage on black land, deeply implement the action to revitalize the seed industry, implement the subsidy policy for the purchase and application of agricultural machinery, and improve the comprehensive capacity of grain production; Third, implement subsidies for corn and soybean producers and rice subsidies; Fourth, increase incentives for grain producing counties and mobilize the enthusiasm of local governments to pay attention to agriculture and grain; Fifth, the implementation of corn and soybean belt compound planting subsidies to support the compatible development of soybean and corn; Sixth, support the development of socialized services such as alternative farming and planting of grain and oil plants, and promote cost savings and efficiency; Seventh, support the construction of a number of grain and oil industrial parks and industrial clusters; Eighth, increase investment in agricultural disaster prevention, mitigation and relief funds; Ninth, strengthen financial and insurance policy support. The two departments require that all localities should further improve their political position, fully implement the same responsibilities of the party and government for food security, strengthen organizational leadership, strengthen investment guarantee, pay attention to publicity and guidance, speed up fund cashing, strengthen performance management, pay close attention to the implementation of various support policies, and make every effort to ensure a bumper harvest of grain throughout the year. The re emphasis on food security in macro policies and the successive implementation of subsidies related to grain planting will improve farmers’ enthusiasm for grain planting and enhance the landscape of the planting industry chain. Listed companies related to seed industry have ushered in an important policy window. In terms of target selection, we mainly recommend Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with obvious first mover advantage and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) .
The perennial root of sugarcane is three years in China, but five to seven years in Brazil and Australia. This is the reason why the overall supply of sugar was relatively sufficient in the past and the price of sugar did not rise for many years, but the cycle will only be late and will not be absent. 2022 has been six years away from the high point of the previous cycle. Superimposed on the higher than expected rise of oil prices and the large release of global currencies, as well as the frequent occurrence of global extreme climate caused by sunspot movement in recent years, a new upward cycle of sugar has begun. In terms of target selection, the stable target focuses on recommending Cofco Sugar Holding Co.Ltd(600737) , the leader of China’s sugar industry, and the flexible target Nanning Sugar Industry Co.Ltd(000911) is expected to benefit fully.
In addition, we continue to recommend chemical stocks with a valuation of only 12 times Meihua Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600873) . We expect that the performance elasticity in 2022 will come from the production of new lysine capacity by the end of 2021. In the long run, the monosodium glutamate and amino acid industries are limited by the new capacity under the background of carbon neutralization, and the valuation center is expected to rise.
Pig breeding: according to the data of zhuyitong, the average price of pigs nationwide this week was 12.15 yuan / kg, up 1.33% on a weekly basis, and the price of pigs stopped falling and turned up after falling for two consecutive weeks. From the demand side, the covid-19 pneumonia epidemic situation is repeated and severe, the catering industry is depressed, and the pork consumption in the market continues to be under pressure; From the supply side, the supply of live pigs continues to be relatively loose. However, with the continuous sealing and control measures against the epidemic situation and the long-term traffic control, the delivery and transportation time of live pigs will be prolonged, the arrival in the sales area will be reduced, the price will rise, and drive the price rise in the surrounding areas. It is expected that the fluctuation of pig price will be strong in the short term. After the epidemic situation eases, the pig price will still weaken again. In addition, since November last year, the price of feed raw materials such as soybean meal has increased significantly, which has a great impact on the breeding cost. According to the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, since the beginning of the year, the price of compound feed for fattening pigs has increased by about 300 yuan / ton. According to the feed meat ratio of 3:1, the breeding cost will increase by 0.80 yuan for every kilogram of meat grown by pigs. The supply pattern is wide, Panasonic’s consumption is sluggish, and the breeding cost is increased due to the rise in the price of feed raw materials. We expect the breeding main body to accelerate the marketing, reduce losses and further reduce production capacity. From the current time node, the average market value of some high-quality pig breeding stocks has fallen to a historically low level, and the configuration window has been gradually opened. The choice of specific targets to choose from among among the specific targets is to be recommended in turn for the selection of specific targets, with the following to be recommended in turn: the0 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 8 , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , etc. are expected to benefit fully.
Risk tips
The recovery process of pig production capacity is less than expected, the product sales is less than expected, and the commercialization process of GM is less than expected.
