\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 484 Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) )
The rise of raw materials and electricity prices squeezed the profit space, continued to optimize the product structure and maintained the “buy” rating
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 3.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.71%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 435 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%. The performance was lower than expected, which was mainly dragged down by the rise of raw material prices and electricity prices. We adjusted 2022 / 2023 and added a new profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 607 / 789 / 1019 million yuan (the former value is 633 / 869 million yuan, the data in 2024 is new), EPS will be 0.73/0.95/1.23 yuan (the former value is / 0.77/1.05 yuan, the data in 2024 is new), and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 29.5/22.7/17.5 times. The company’s product structure continued to be optimized, the proportion of new energy in aluminum electrolytic capacitor business continued to increase, and the film capacitor and super capacitor business crossed the profit inflection point and maintained the “buy” rating.
Non net profit deducted in 2021q4 was + 8.3% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin decreased by 3.8 percentage points month on month due to rising costs
2021q4 revenue was + 9.2% year-on-year and + 5.4% month on month, deducting non net profit of 97.74 million yuan, up + 8.3% year on year and – 17.7% month on month. The decline in non net profit deducted in 2021q4 was mainly due to the rise in cost (the increase in electricity price caused the cost of chemical foil to rise by more than 50%), and the gross profit margin in the fourth quarter was 22.4%, down 3.8 percentage points month on month.
Aluminum electrolytic capacitors are booming, and the proportion of new energy demand continues to increase
In 2021, the company’s aluminum electrolytic capacitor revenue was 2.847 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38.7%, mainly benefiting from the high demand for traditional industrial control and new energy photovoltaic. Among them, the overall proportion of industrial control is more than 75%, the revenue of new energy photovoltaic segment market accounts for 15%, and the proportion of new energy continues to increase. At present, 7 of the top 10 photovoltaic inverter manufacturers in the world have become company users. MLPC product technology continues to upgrade and the market continues to expand. In 2021, 6.6 million MLPC products have been shipped every month. With the increasing demand for new energy and the proportion of new products such as MLPC, the growth of aluminum electrolytic capacitor business will be more and more stable in the future.
Smooth development of thin film capacitor Market
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 224 million yuan from thin-film capacitors, with a year-on-year increase of 15.3%. The revenue from thin-film capacitors accounted for 6.3% of the company’s revenue and a gross profit margin of 20.6%. The thin-film capacitor business achieved a small profit. The output of self-produced metallized film of subsidiary xinjianghai power electronics increased by 50%. The production line of box thin film capacitor for distributed photovoltaic realizes mass production. Haimei has successfully developed the market of thin film capacitors for electronic drive, and won the bid for many automobile brands and electric drive plant projects.
Risk warning: chip shortage affects downstream terminal shipment; Risk of raw material price rise
