\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 001 Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) )
The performance soared beyond expectations, and the deepening of national reform is optimistic about long-term growth
The company released the annual performance express in 2021. In 2021, the total operating revenue was about 18.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 67.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 431.9%. The company’s performance rose sharply, mainly benefiting from the sharp rise in coal price in 2021, the simultaneous rise in coal volume and price and excellent cost control. Q4 performance greatly exceeded expectations. In 2022, the fundamentals of the coal industry are in tight balance between supply and demand. The commercial coal is dominated by the long-term association, and the company is still optimistic about maintaining steady profits. The company is backed by Jinneng holding group, and there is a lot of room for high-quality asset injection. Due to the lower cost than expected, we lowered the profit forecast for 2021 and maintained the same forecast for 2022 and 2023. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.66/64.9/67.4 (the previous value was 4.87/64.9/67.4) billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 432% / 39.3% / 3.9%; EPS is 2.78/3.88/4.03 yuan (the previous value is 2.91 / 3.88 / 4.03), corresponding to the current share price PE is 3.5 / 2.5 / 2.4 times. Maintain the “buy” rating.
In 2021, the coal price was at a high level, and the production, sales and prices of the company rose simultaneously
In 2021, the supply and demand of power coal was tight, and the coal price rose all the way. The average annual market coal price was as high as 1030 yuan / ton, an increase of 78% year-on-year; The average price of the long-term association was as high as 648 yuan / ton, an increase of 19% year-on-year. Q1-q3 company achieved an operating revenue of 11.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 240%. The average market price of Q4 thermal coal was 1355 yuan / ton, an increase of 18.9% compared with Q3; The average price of Changxie was 744 yuan / ton, an increase of 12.3% month on month. The company’s commercial coal is dominated by the long-term association. In response to the national call to implement the supply guarantee policy, the sales volume of commercial coal increased, the Q4 profit level increased significantly, the performance exceeded expectations, and the operating revenue was 6.95 billion yuan, an increase of 66.9% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.06 billion yuan, an increase of 67% month on month. At the same time, the company implemented fine management, increased cost reduction and efficiency increase, and brought great growth to the overall profitability of the company.
Tongxin coal mine benefits well, and there is a lot of room for high-quality assets to be injected
Relying on the newly established “energy aircraft carrier” Jinneng holding group, as its only coal listing platform, the company is expected to obtain further injection of high-quality coal assets and have a large growth space in the future. In November 2020, the company acquired 32% equity of Tongxin coal mine held by the group. In 2021, Tongxin coal mine achieved good benefits and the company’s investment income increased significantly. At present, the group’s total coal production capacity is about 404 million tons / year, and the company’s equity production capacity is only 27.35 million tons / year. The group’s asset securitization rate is lower than the government’s requirements. In the future, the group is expected to accelerate asset securitization. Under the expected background of injecting high-quality coal assets into listed companies, the company’s production capacity still has great room for improvement.
Risk tip: the economic growth is down, the progress of asset securitization is less than expected, and the replacement of renewable energy is accelerated
