\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 050 Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) )
The year-on-year performance of the parent company is + 32% and the net profit of 2021 is + 15%, which is in line with the expectation of the parent market. In 2021, the revenue reached 16.021 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.30%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.684 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.18%, and the performance was in line with market expectations. Benefiting from the structural growth brought by the energy efficiency upgrading of the traditional refrigeration sector and the brilliant sales performance of Tesla and other major new energy vehicle customers, the company achieved a revenue of about 3.06 billion yuan from January to February 2022, an increase of about 40% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company is about 290 million yuan, an increase of about 30% at the same time. We expect that the shipment of auto parts will continue to grow month on month, the traditional refrigeration will maintain a good growth, and the operating performance of 2022q1 is expected to continue the high growth trend from January to February.
Affected by multiple factors such as rising prices of materials and freight, the gross profit margin has declined. The gross profit margin in 2021 was 25.68%, with a year-on-year increase of -4.13pct. The reasons are as follows: 1) the price of raw materials such as copper & aluminum continued to rise, and the company’s price increase measures lagged behind; 2) Freight rise and included in operating costs (changes in accounting standards); 3) The exchange rate of US dollar against RMB rose; 4) The proportion of auto parts business integration component products has increased, and the superposition of strategic seize the market sales share has also reduced the overall gross profit margin to a certain extent.
The downstream prosperity of traditional refrigeration is relatively good, the overall growth is stable, some products benefit from energy efficiency upgrading, and the growth rate is faster. In 2021, the traditional refrigeration sector achieved a revenue of 11.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16%. 1) Under the background of traditional electronic products and energy efficiency standards; In addition to household appliances, the downstream will expand the field of commercial refrigeration. 2) There is a strong demand for microchannel overseas business, but due to factors such as shipping costs and rising aluminum prices, the gross profit margin has fallen more, dragging down the profits of the whole sector. 3) Relying on the universal speed-up of dishwashers in China and the transformation of internal supply chain, AVIC has turned losses into profits and is expected to continue to make profits. 4) Looking forward to 2022, the concentration of refrigeration parts industry will be further improved. Especially since Gree plans to acquire Dunan, its competitor’s parts share will continue to transfer to Sanhua; The application penetration rate of electronic expansion valve and other products continues to increase, while the company has outstanding advantages; Commercial refrigeration is growing rapidly. Overall, we expect the annual revenue of the traditional refrigeration sector to be about + 30% year-on-year.
Benefiting from the high growth of sales volume of key customers and the improvement of ASP, the auto zero business continues to walk out of the “second growth curve”. 1) The revenue of new energy vehicle thermal management in 2021 reached 4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 166%. In terms of core customers, Tesla delivered 936000 vehicles in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 87%, and other customers also increased. Heat pump integrated components of mainstream models have gradually become “standard”. We expect that the proportion of integrated components will be more than 30% in 2021, and the subsequent proportion will continue to increase, driving the rise of ASP. At the same time, the company will strengthen the research and development of platform component products, which is expected to improve the degree of standardization and further reduce costs on a large scale. 2) The revenue of traditional fuel vehicle thermal management products in 2021 was 800 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 17%, which is expected to remain stable in the future. 3) Looking forward to 2022, the new energy vehicle business has abundant orders and strong production scheduling, and the large customers in North America continue to increase the volume and account for the revenue of the new energy vehicle sector. We expect that it will still reach the level of 50% +; Other brands, such as Weilai and Volvo, continue to be in high volume; Fuel vehicles are basically stable. We expect that the annual zero revenue of automobile is expected to reach more than 60%, with a year-on-year growth, accounting for 3-40% of revenue. The growth attribute is becoming more prominent. Due to the further acceleration of integration, we expect the gross profit margin of auto zero to decrease slightly.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 will be 2.32 billion yuan, 3.03 billion yuan and 3.87 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 38%, + 30% and + 28% respectively, corresponding to 26x, 20x and 16x PE at the current price and 22.75 yuan at the target price, corresponding to 35 times PE in 2022, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales of household appliances are less than expected, the sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, and the competition is intensified.
