\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 088 China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) )
In 2021, the return to the parent company increased by 28.3% year-on-year and the dividend rate was 9.90%. In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 335216 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.7%, and a net profit of 50.269 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.3%; The gross profit margin was 33.04%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.36 percentage points; The net profit margin was 15.00%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.80 percentage points, EPS was 2.53 yuan, the distribution plan was to pay cash of 25.4 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, the dividend ratio was 100.4%, and the dividend rate was 9.90% calculated according to the closing price on the reporting day.
Q4 impairment swallowed up profits: in the fourth quarter, the company’s revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 102267 billion yuan and 9.518 billion yuan respectively, with a month on month change of 14.95% and – 35.36% respectively, and the gross profit margin and net profit margin were 34.36% and 9.31% respectively, with a month on month increase of 2.49 and a decrease of 7.24 percentage points; The main reason for Q4’s income increase without profit increase is the provision of asset impairment loss of RMB 1.286 billion for coal production equipment and spare parts with signs of impairment, and the provision of credit impairment loss of RMB 2.601 billion for long-term accounts, which affects eps0.5% in a single quarter in total 18 yuan.
In 2021, the volume and price of the coal sector rose simultaneously: the proportion of revenue and gross profit contributed by the coal sector was 70.36% and 73.08% respectively. Benefiting from the recovery of the industry boom, the volume and price of coal rose simultaneously, and the revenue and gross profit of the coal sector increased by 54.01% and 0.11% respectively. Specifically, in 2021, the company sold 482 million tons of coal, with a year-on-year increase of 8.04%, and the sales price per ton of coal was 588 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 43.41%; In terms of sales structure, the company’s total annual long-term cooperative volume was 210 million tons, accounting for an increase of 0.57 percentage points to 43.11%, the price increased by 20% to 456 yuan / ton, the proportion of spot sales decreased from 17.16% in 2020 to 11.32%, and the price increased by 43.30% to 599 yuan / ton; The cost per ton of self-produced coal was 156 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.45%.
Decline in revenue and gross profit of the power sector: the revenue and gross profit of the power sector before the merger were 64.124 billion yuan and 495 million yuan respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 29.58% and 64.31% respectively, and the gross profit margin was 7.72%, a decrease of 19.51 percentage points, accounting for 15.42% and 4.49% of the revenue and gross profit before the merger, respectively.
The revenue of the port and railway sector increased and the profit decreased, and the shipping profit increased by 208.83%. The revenue of the railway and port sector increased, but the gross profit decreased, and the revenue and gross profit of shipping and coal chemical industry improved. The revenue of railway, port, shipping and coal chemical industry increased by 5.10%, 1.27%, 99.07% and 13.28% year-on-year respectively, and the gross profit decreased by 15.04%, 10.54%, 6.82% and 3.20% year-on-year respectively
On a quarterly basis, revenue rebounded quarter by quarter and the profitability of the sector was divided: the company’s revenue showed a trend of quarterly recovery, with Q4 increasing by 14.95% month on month, but the gross profit increased by only 2.49% month on month, dragged down by the decline in the power and transportation sector; The profits of the coal sector showed a synchronous quarterly repair trend. Under the impact of the rise in coal prices in the fourth quarter, the gross profit of the power sector decreased by 154.2% month on month, dragging down the performance of the sector throughout the year; The gross profit of coal chemical industry Q4 decreased by 92.76% month on month to 2.1 billion yuan, and the gross profit margin in a single quarter was only 1.88%.
In 2022, the company will consolidate the supporting assets and maintain steady growth: the company plans to produce 298 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%, the sales volume of 403 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 16.5%, the cost of self-produced tons of coal is expected to increase by 10%, and the operating revenue is 296.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%; The planned capital expenditure is 32.611 billion yuan, 24.82% lower than that in 2021, of which the coal, electric power and railway sectors account for 18.88%, 52.70% and 19.89% respectively. It is mainly used for the technical transformation projects of various mines in Shendong mining area, the optimization project of production system of Shengli No. 1 open pit coal mine, and the preliminary preparation of Xinjie No. 1 well in Xinjie Taigemiao mining area; Hunan Yongzhou phase I project, Inner Mongolia Shengli Power Plant Phase I project and other power generation projects under construction; Purchase of general and special railway equipment and construction of Huangdao Dalian railway; And coal to olefin upgrading demonstration project, Baotou chemical effluent desalination standard discharge transformation and other technical transformation projects.
Investment suggestion: our company predicts that the earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.93, 3.08 and 3.11 respectively, and the return on net assets will be 14.7%, 14.3% and 13.5% respectively. Maintain the proposal of increasing Holdings – A.
Risk warning: the decline of coal price exceeds the expected risk; Environmental protection supervision risk; Exchange risk; Risk that the project’s investment and production schedule is less than expected
