\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 799 Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) )
Event overview
The company released its annual report for 2021: in 2021, it achieved a revenue of 7.909 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.0%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 949 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 18.1%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent of 847 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 21.8%; Among them, 2021q4 achieved a revenue of RMB 2.251 billion, a year-on-year increase of – 12.6%, a month on month increase of + 31.9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 211 million, a year-on-year increase of – 53.4%, a month on month increase of + 24.9%, deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 181 million, a year-on-year increase of – 57.7% and a month on month increase of + 24.8%.
Analysis and judgment:
21q4 revenue meets expected profit and short-term pressure
On the revenue side, the company achieved a revenue of 7.909 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 8.0%, of which 2021q4 revenue was 2.251 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 12.6% and a month on month decrease of + 31.9%, which is expected to be mainly due to the significant reduction of production and sales of FAW Volkswagen, the core customer affected by the lack of core (21q4 sales volume was – 38.5% year-on-year), but the month on month recovery was strong (21q4 sales volume was + 22.5%), which is basically in line with previous expectations. According to the announcement of the company’s main operating data from January to February 2022, the revenue from January to February achieved a year-on-year increase of 25%. It is expected that the full year dimension of 2022 will benefit from the repair of production and sales of core customers FAW Volkswagen, the improvement of FAW red flag sales and the large volume of Japanese new projects.
On the profit side, the gross profit margin of the company’s main business in 2021 was 22.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1pct, which was mainly affected by the rise in the price of raw materials and the increase in labor and manufacturing costs, resulting in the year-on-year decline of 18.1% in the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 to 949 million yuan. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 211 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 53.4% and a month on month increase of + 24.9%. With the improvement of raw material prices and the optimization and upgrading of product structure in 2022, it is expected that there will be a large repair space at the profit end.
On the expense side, the company’s sales / management / R & D / financial rates in 2021 were 1.22%, 2.76%, 4.90% and 0.29% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of -1.05pct, + 0.18pct, + 0.69pct and + 0.35pct respectively. The significant decline in sales rates was mainly due to the reclassification of transportation costs incurred in performing sales contracts after changes in accounting policies to operating costs.
Benefit from intelligent upgrading of lamps and continuous optimization of product structure
Benefiting from the wave of automotive intelligence, the lights are changing from traditional functional safety parts to electronization and intelligence. The penetration rate of LED headlights continues to increase, and is gradually evolving into matrix LED, AFS, ADB and DLP functions. The interior lights of intelligent cockpit are becoming more personalized and integrated. In February 2022, in order to sign the letter of intent on intelligent vehicle light business cooperation with China, the company carried out strategic cooperation in the field of intelligent lamps and led the development of intelligent lamp industry.
The company has a full layout in terms of LEB and intelligent headlights. LED headlights are supplied to first-line car enterprises such as North South Volkswagen and FAW Toyota. ADB headlights get on FAW red flag. The supporting value of single car is expected to be more than 4000 yuan. DLP headlights will be awarded the project by the end of 2021; Pixel headlamps and rhythmic taillights with welcome function have also been successfully developed. Compared with traditional halogen or xenon headlights, the value of LED and intelligent headlights has increased significantly, and the gross profit margin is higher. In the future, with the successive production of new projects, the company’s product structure is expected to continue to be optimized.
Optimize the customer structure, base on China and aim at the world
As the leader of independent lamps, the company has gradually realized import substitution in the Chinese market by taking advantage of local R & D iteration, customer response and cost control. At present, the company has entered the supplier system of new forces and head independent brand customers, obtained projects, and synchronously extended to automotive electronics. The Chinese market stabilizes and the company expands the global market in due time: in 2019, the company starts the construction plan of Serbian factory, which is expected to be officially put into operation in the second quarter of 2022, and gradually implement the European main engine plant project. The cost of Serbian factory is relatively low, which will mainly radiate European customers. The short-term growth of the company mainly comes from China. In the medium and long term, the company’s penetration into the global market dominated by Europe will continue to contribute new and greater increments to the company’s performance growth in the future.
Investment advice
Maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2023 will be 10.484/12.864 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.546/2.103 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 5.41/7.36 yuan respectively; The new revenue forecast for 2024 is 15.305 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 2.604 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS 9.12 yuan. Corresponding to the closing price of 145.50 yuan / share on March 25, 2022, PE is 27 / 20 / 16 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The sales volume of passenger car market is lower than expected; Under the influence of overseas epidemic, the expansion of new customers is less than expected; Lack of core and rising prices of raw materials; The process of globalization is not as expected.
