\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 799 Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) )
The decline of gross profit margin and the rise of R & D investment put pressure on the performance end in 2021
The company released its 2021 annual report. The revenue in 2021 was 7.909 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.01%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 949 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 18.12%. In 2021q4, the company’s revenue was 2.251 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 12.55%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 211 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 53.39%. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company declined in 2021, mainly due to the increase of raw materials, labor and manufacturing costs (accounting for + 1.0 / 0.9 / 1.3pcts of main revenue) and the increase of R & D expenses (accounting for + 0.7pcts of revenue). On the basis of 2021, we lowered the company’s profit forecast for 20222023 and added a new profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the revenue from 20222024 will be 101.0/125.6 (original value 106.4 / 126.1) / 15.57 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 12.6/16.2 (original value 17.7 / 21.4) / 2.07 billion yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 34.3/26.7/20.9 times respectively. Considering the upgrading of the company’s beneficial industries and domestic substitution, the long-term positive trend will remain unchanged and the “buy” rating will be maintained.
Gradually reduce the dependence on key customers and expand new forces and independent brands
In 2021q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4, FAW Volkswagen’s sales volume was – 14.1% / – 20.3% / – 28.0% / + 56.7% month on month, and the company’s quarterly revenue was – 25.8% / + 6.8% / – 16.4% / + 31.9% month on month. The company’s changes since Q2 have been relatively stable, reflecting the weakening of its influence by the public to a certain extent. In 2021, the revenue of the company’s top five customers accounted for 69.4% (year-on-year – 8.2pcts). The company is gradually reducing its dependence on key customers and has expanded new forces and head independent brand customers.
The controller is sold, and the intelligent upgrading is expected to drive the optimization of product structure
In 2021, the company extended the layout of automotive electronics to the upstream and achieved preliminary results. The sales of controller products were 116500, with a revenue of 25.26 million yuan, contributing to a new performance growth point. The company accelerated the pace of intelligent lamps and won the DLP headlamp project at the end of 2021. The intelligent upgrading is expected to drive the optimization of the company’s product structure.
Serbian factory put into operation, independent lamp leader to the world
The Serbian plant of the company and the projects from European main engine plants have been put into batch production since 2022. In the Chinese market, the company relies on rapid response, cost advantage and technical strength to gradually replace the share of foreign manufacturers. At the same time, the production of Serbian factories will help the company move from home to the world, and the long-term growth space can be expected.
Risk tips: the mitigation of core shortage is not as expected, the sales volume of passenger cars is declining, the epidemic situation is repeated, etc
