\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 556 Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) )
Event:
According to the announcement of the company, the company signed a 141 million (tax included) photovoltaic cutting equipment sales contract with Jingke energy (Yushan and Poyang), a subsidiary of Jingke, and won all slicer equipment orders for the bidding of Jingke Poyang project. The contract performance period is from May to August 2022. According to the over 100 million contract disclosed by the company, at present, the company has more than 760 million orders on hand (Jingao 380 million + Gaojing 146 million + Jingke 141 + Tonghe 100 million), We expect to have a positive impact on the company's operating performance in 2022.
Comments:
1) strengthen the reputation of high measurement industry and deeply bind key customers. At present, the company has been deeply bound with high-quality enterprises such as Longji, Jingao and poly GCL. This order will strengthen cooperation with Jingke.
2) the market share of equipment is expected to rise with the landing of new orders. Since 18 years ago, the market share of the company has increased steadily (from 27% in 2018 to about 38% in 2020 according to revenue).
3) equipment and consumables resonate, and two wheel drive meets high growth. The production and landing of cutting equipment is expected to further stimulate the demand for consumables. At present, the company has completed the technical transformation (upgrading from 6 lines of one machine to 12 lines of one machine, and the production capacity is increased by 3 times after the technical transformation), and the annual production capacity is expected to reach 25 million km (according to the 90% capacity utilization rate and the linear average assumption of each quarter, the output of 22q1 is expected to be 5.62 million km). In terms of the fine line process, the 40 / 38 line has realized batch production, and has reserved more fine lines.
4) the OEM capacity of slicing is expected to reach 16GW in 22 years, and the output is expected to reach 14.4gw based on 90% capacity utilization; It is expected that all 35gw will reach production capacity in 23 years, corresponding to 31.5gw output calculated by 90% capacity utilization rate, which is expected to continue to contribute to performance elasticity.
5) continuous breakthroughs in innovative businesses such as semiconductor, sapphire and magnetic materials. Silicon carbide slicer and semiconductor grinder are in the stage of market promotion. We expect about 100 million revenue in the whole year of the 21st century, and the new business is expected to open a new growth curve for the future.
Profit forecast:
We estimate that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 165 / 344 / 577 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding P / E will be 69 / 33 / 20 respectively. Give a "buy" rating!
Risk warning: the risk that the contract cannot be performed on schedule or in full; Policy change and market fluctuation risk of photovoltaic industry; Risk of uncollectible accounts receivable; The calculation is subjective and only for reference; The chip OEM business is less than expected; Market fluctuation risk of diamond line
