\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 882 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) )
Events
In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 4.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.31%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 154 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 160.6%. 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 1.334 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.45%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 11 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 72.68%.
Key investment points
Increase the business structure and improve the profitability of cheese products
In 2021, the company's cheese business revenue was 3.335 billion yuan (+ 60.77%), the revenue increased by 1.71 percentage points to 74.62% compared with the same period last year, and the gross profit margin increased by 3.14 percentage points to 48.51% compared with the same period last year, of which the cheese stick business revenue was 2.513 billion yuan (+ 70.8%), and the proportion of cheese business increased by 4.42 percentage points to 75.37%; The income of liquid milk increased by 4% to 430 million yuan compared with the same period last year, and the gross profit margin decreased by 4.19% to 13.73% compared with the same period last year; The trading business achieved a revenue of 704 million yuan (+ 96.97%), and the gross profit margin increased by 1.92 percentage points to 3.9% compared with the same period last year.
Equity incentive fees and pre Spring Festival advertising fees put pressure on performance
In 2021, the company's gross profit margin was + 2.3pct to 38.21% compared with the same period last year, the net profit margin was + 1.73pct to 4.33% compared with the same period last year, and the sales expense ratio / management expense ratio increased by 0.92/2.27pct compared with the same period last year. In 2021, the company amortized about 130 million yuan of share based payment expenses attributable to shareholders of the parent company; Excluding the impact of equity incentive fees, the company realized a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 364.5%.
Deep cultivation of channels, refined at low temperature and wide at normal temperature
In terms of channels, by the end of the 21st century, the number of dealers of the company had reached 5363, an increase of 2737 compared with the same period last year, including 1137 in Q4. Fali normal temperature cheese stick, about 1000 new dealers in Q4 are normal temperature dealers, covering about 200000 outlets; In terms of organizational structure, the atmospheric and low temperature business division is merged, and the North-South Division makes overall planning to effectively solve potential conflicts. Looking forward to 22 years, with the continuous expansion of normal temperature channels, the gradual release of production capacity and the improper upgrading of product structure, the company's revenue will continue to grow rapidly and the profit margin can be improved.
Profit forecast and valuation
We believe that the company is expected to fully benefit from the high growth of the cheese market and consolidate its leading position. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 6.64 billion, RMB 8.34 billion and RMB 9.03 billion respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 480 million yuan, 670 million yuan and 810 million yuan respectively; The corresponding PE is 39, 28 and 23 times respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk warning: the movable sales are not as expected; Increased competition; The penetration rate of other cheese products was lower than expected
