\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 088 China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) )
The coal price soared, the performance improved, and the ultra-high proportion of dividends highlighted the value
According to the annual report released by the company, in 2021, the operating revenue was 335.2 billion yuan (year-on-year + 43.7%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 50.3 billion yuan (year-on-year + 28.3%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was about 50 billion yuan (year-on-year + 31%). Benefiting from the improvement of coal sales and prices, the company’s performance achieved steady growth. Under the energy reform, the coal price center has substantially improved. We raised the forecast for 20222023 and added the forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 59.41/61.27/62.12 billion yuan (the previous value is 58.6/60.8 / – billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 18.2% / 3.1% / 1.4%; EPS is 2.99/3.08/3.13 yuan (the previous value is 2.95/3.06 / – yuan), corresponding to the current share price PE is 9.1 / 8.8 / 8.7 times. In the context of the increase of the benchmark price of the annual long-term coal association, the company’s coal price center may move upward, which is expected to continue to make high profits, and the stable high dividend and high dividend rate highlight the long-term investment value. Maintain the “buy” rating.
The volume and price of the main coal industry rose simultaneously, and the increase of the long-term association price was conducive to the release of good performance
The coal business performed well, with a year-on-year revenue / gross profit of 54.03% / 63.35% respectively: the production and sales volume increased steadily. In 2021, the company achieved 307 / 482 million tons of coal production / sales (year-on-year + 5.28% / + 8.04%). Among them, the sales volume of self-produced coal was 313 million tons (year-on-year + 5.74%), and the sales volume of purchased coal was 170 million tons (year-on-year + 13.03%); The total sales volume of Changxie coal is 403 million tons (accounting for 84%, year-on-year + 14%), the annual sales volume of Changxie coal is 207 million tons (accounting for 45%, year-on-year + 1.06 PCT), and the monthly sales volume of Changxie coal is 196 million tons (accounting for 43%, year-on-year + 4.82%). The price of the long-term association rose sharply and its performance was fully released. In 2021, the annual average price of long-term cooperation (excluding tax) was 456 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 20%), the monthly average price of long-term cooperation was 765 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 64.52%), and the comprehensive average price was 588 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 43.41%). The profitability of self-produced coal was further improved, and the gross profit margin was the highest in recent three years. The cost per ton of self-produced coal is 155.5 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 20.92%), the gross profit per ton of self-produced coal is 433 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 48.7%), and the gross profit margin is 73.6% (year-on-year + 4.92 PCT). Due to the company’s active participation in ensuring and increasing supply in 2021, the coal output increased, and the rising cost of self-produced coal was mainly due to the impact of labor costs and accrued but unused safety expenses. However, the increase of coal price was much higher than that of cost, the profitability of self-produced coal was further improved, and the gross profit margin was the highest in recent three years.
The realized volume of power generation and transportation business increases, and the power generation cost is under pressure
Growth in China’s electricity demand & a number of new coal-fired units have been put into operation, and the sales volume of power business has increased significantly, with a year-on-year revenue of + 29.53%: the sales volume and utilization rate have increased. In 2021, the year-on-year electricity generation / sales was + 22.09 / + 22.31%, and the average utilization hours were 4749 hours (year-on-year + 7.86%). The selling price increases, the cost is under pressure, and the gross profit decreases sharply. The year-on-year selling price was + 4.4% and the year-on-year selling cost was + 26.05%, which was mainly due to the rise of coal purchase price, resulting in a gross profit of only 15.45 yuan / MWh in 2021 (year-on-year – 78.56%). Installed capacity growth. In 2021, the newly installed coal-fired capacity will be 5620 MW. The operation of railway business is stable, with revenue / gross profit of + 5.11% / + 1.44% year-on-year: the turnover of self owned railway coal transportation is 303 billion ton kilometers (year-on-year + 6.2%).
Improve the coal price range mechanism, improve the certainty of the company’s performance, and highlight the investment value with high scores and high dividends
On February 24, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on further improving the coal market price formation mechanism. The document specified that the reasonable range of annual long-term association coal price (including tax) of 5500 kcal thermal coal in QinGang was 570770 yuan / ton, and the annual long-term association benchmark price was increased to 675 yuan / ton, which was significantly higher than the previous 535 yuan / ton, and the performance certainty of a high proportion of long-term association coal enterprises was enhanced. Under the resonance of the national development and Reform Commission raising the benchmark price of the long-term association and the high proportion of the company’s long-term association coal, the company’s performance may continue to release. The dividend to be paid to all shareholders of the company at the closing price of 202954% per share (including the latest dividend tax of 202154% per share), respectively. The dividend yield is very attractive and the long-term investment value of the leader is prominent.
Risk warning: the economic recovery is not as expected; The annual benchmark price of Changxie coal was lowered; Rising mining costs
